Study On Passenger Flow Forecasting Of Urban Railway Extension Lines

Urban rail transit construction of our country is in the stage of rapid development. Since the railway lines are built and operated in phases, more and more extension lines appear in many cities. Most of current research in the field of rail transit passenger flow forecasting focus on railway network in long-term medium, but the change trend and forecasting of passenger flow of extension lines are in lack of attention. In view of the situation, this paper study on passenger flow forecasting of extension lines on the basis of existing research.Firstly, this paper analyzes the mechanism of influence of extension lines on passenger flow. Taking Xi’an Metro Line 2 as an example, the change trend of station passenger flow and passenger flow distribution of extension lines is summarized. Secondly, this paper puts forward the method of station passenger flow forecasting after metro lines extend. The forecasting model based on variables in circle group and BP neural networks is used to forecast passenger flow of extension stations. Passenger flow of existing stations is forecasted based on predicted results of extension stations. Passenger flow of all stations is adjusted by total control method. Thirdly, this paper brings in disaggregated model, raises destination site selection model of rail transit passenger, analyzes the utility function of passenger flow distribution, and establishes passenger flow distribution forecasting method based on AFC statistical data. Finaly, taking Xi’an Metro Line 2 as an example, this paper uses established passenger flow prediction model to forecast passenger flow of Metro Line 2 after south extension line is opened. The case study indicates that the established passenger flow prediction model can improve prediction accuracy compared to traditional methods and it is suitable for passenger flow forecasting of railway extension lines.