The Load Forecasting And Planning Of Distribution Network Based On Accelerated Grid Method

This topic is the main content of the science and technology project “The study and key strategies of power distribution network planning about the introduced new element city using greedy method”, hosted by Shanxi Electric Power Company. Recently, with the continued upgraded of the grid system, traditional planning methods have been unable to adapt to the increasingly large-scale distribution network. To create a distribution network planning, load forecasting should be done firstly. It is essential to load forecasting firstly. But the commonly used methods of grid load forecasting have some disadvantages, such as more data needed, more uncertainty contained, and wide range of factors involved, which greatly affected the speed forecasting and planning implementation. Therefore, in this paper load forecasting model based on greedy method is established, which improves the method and the speed of traditional grid load forecasting. In addition, network planning methods tightly aligned with municipal planning is proposed, which enhances the feasibility of network planning program development. Load forecasting parameters were normalized basis, so that the amount of data compression load forecast by nearly 32%, which greatly accelerated the rate forecast.In the part of grid load forecasting method. Firstly, vertical grid division method is proposed, it is based on the urban land re division, and overall load density in each area is considered as the standard. For this method load forecasting parameters are normalized, so that the amount of load forecasting data is compressed by nearly 32%, thus greatly accelerates the prediction speed. Then, this method is applied to typical district 4 area grid method load forecasting of a city in 2020, it confirmed the compression of overall amount of data and initial acceleration of load forecasting.Secondly, load forecasting model combined with grid method and greedy algorithm is built. This model can quickly obtain the global optimum by local optimal decision, thus could improve the efficiency of the algorithm execution and achieve the purpose of further accelerate forecasting speed of grid method. Meanwhile, in the Matlab platform the software of accelerate greedy method load forecasting is developed, including the corresponding function, i.e. Import of raw data, choose greedy, human-machine cooperation, output of load density results. And the software is used to the load forecasting of typical areas of different land types. The results of error analysis show that there has been a marked improvement in terms of reduced error by using this new load forecasting model.In the part of network planning. Firstly, the platform of power supply area division based on the municipal planning is developed. Focus on the combination of load density and municipal planning, distribution network power supply region is divided. And a method of municipal planning division based on image processing is proposed. A histogram segmentation model is established on the Matlab platform for distinguish between the load level, and applied in the city municipal plans. Then, the power supply area is divided into A, B and C areas according to the heavy load area, light load area and safe area. This new method avoids the repeated and conflicting with municipal planning in planning activities, which greatly improves the efficiency and level of distribution network planning.Secondly, according to the regional division of power and the actual situation, a program about select the appropriate power mode and form network planning is proposed. A typical power supply mode and power grid planning based on the power supply area are designed by way of wiring mode. In a 10 kV network planning as an example, the power grid structure and circuit about different power supply partition are selected. The structure of the network is divided into three steps to carry out the planning, from strengthening the line contact rate, improve the "N-1" through the rate, to meet the power supply radius and other aspects. Finally form a double ring network, double power supply open and close the standard power supply mode. The planning results show that this method result is feasible and conformity to grid requirements of fine management and intensive development, and have the important instruction function to grid planning.The project has passed the project review of the relevant departments, and has been put into practice in the local power company with good results for promotional value.