Spatial Load Forecasting And Regional Division Of Substation Power Supply In Power Grid Planning

Power system load forecasting is an important issue for the power grid planning,which is the base to achieve power system safe, efficient, scientific and economic. In another word, the operation of the power grid safely, efficiently, economically relies on accurate load forecasting, and the importance is self-evident.The key point of power system load forecasting is to improve its accuracy and practicability, the existing load forecasting methods are various, any a single prediction method is difficult to meet the actual requirements. In practical work, we often need to combine a variety of load forecasting methods in order to get the relatively optimal solution. Among all of these, the Spatial Load Forecast(SLF) of power grid load forecasting method is used widely in China, which has important practical value.After determining a region of saturated load, we need to divide the area of substation power supply, in order to obtain the most economical and reasonable power supply radius and optimization location of substation. According to the local land planning made by related department, the division of power supply area is affected by many factors. In this paper, the optimization algorithm is based on the load moment, which is also the objective function, in this way, we can obtain a scientific and reasonable result.The first chapter describes the present situation and the significance of the research of load forecasting. Chapter 2 gives a brief introduction to the load forecasting methodology. The third chapter and the fourth chapter respectively introduces the method and theoretical basis of Spatial Load Forecasting and power supply substation area division. In the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter, we make the urban district of Yexian County as an example of analysis and the power supply region division of load forecasting, and at last a summary is made.In this paper, the theoretical method and an example analysis are provided for the load forecasting and the power supply area division, which we believe has apracticability of the load forecasting to a town with a similar size.