Comprehensive Research On Dynamic Risk Management And Reliability Of Construction Project

The particularity of construction project determines that the risk management should be dynamic and comprehensive. The dynamic performance of the risk is not only in the time sequence, the process and the stage of the risk factors, but also the logical correlation between risk factors. The reliability of dynamic risk factors for the entire construction project will have different effects. Research on the dynamic risk of construction project has been a hot issue of research scholars at home and abroad, most of the research focus on the establishment of risk identification, analysis and risk evaluation model, and the risk system construction, lacking of corresponding research on the logic correlation of risk factors and dynamic effects of risk events on the reliability of the system.How to qualitative and quantitative analysis of the change trend of risk sources, as well as the influence on the reliability of the whole system, and to provide a basis for the risk control measures, become the main target of dynamic risk management of construction projects. Based on this background, the paper firstly analyzed the concept,content and characteristics of construction project risk, and the reliability of the construction project concept based on the theory of dynamic risk management and reliability, providing theoretical support to the later dynamic risk system construction and reliability risk evaluation and analysis; secondly, the paper proposes the dynamic fault tree and Bayesian network integrated reliability analysis method of construction project system. According to the dynamics of the risk, establish dynamic risk fault tree and convert it into Bayesian networks model, then analysis of the impact of risk events on the reliability of the construction system or subsystem; Again, establish the dynamicrisk management system of construction project, and comprehensive analysis the risk management process and the reliability analysis, establishing integrated management system. Finally, through the engineering example, the dynamic risk and reliability analysis and evaluation are carried out.The paper combines the system reliability of construction project and dynamic risk from the angle of the system, through the establishment of the whole process-oriented dynamic risk management system of construction project. And use the theory of reliability method, the dynamic risk analysis of construction project in different phases and the project reliability analysis are Integrated researched, then analysis the impact of risk factors on the reliability of construction system and sub-system. Based on the overall risk analysis and evaluation, combined with the results of the reliability analysis,the reliability control measures are formulated. From the angle of reliability, this paper studies the comprehensive management of dynamic risk and reliability, which provides a new research idea for dynamic risk management of construction project.