Dynamic Bayesian Network Based Urban Area Fire Risk Perception

The management of urban fires has always been a concern of the government and the public.How to reduce the incidence of fire accidents and improve the management level of urban fires is a topic currently being studied by Chinese scholars.If we can use the appropriate models and methods to achieve the risk perception of urban fires based on existing research,then the management of urban fires will have positive significance.Based on the guidance of the instructors and related internship experience,and based on the research of many outstanding scholars,this paper uses the Bayesian network model to study the Xibecheng District of Beijing as the research object,and establishes the Bayesian network model of fire risk in Xicheng District.By collecting data and analyzing a large number of urban fire accident cases,the main causes of urban fire in China are summarized,and the urban fire accident tree model is established.On the basis of the accident tree model,this paper transforms the urban fire accident tree model into the urban fire bayesian network model by transforming the accident tree into the basic transformation rules flow the estimation method to determine the prior probability of basic of the basic event more timeliness and accuracy,this paper used bayesian estimation and parameter dynamic update algorithm,by introducing real-time data.The real-time update of the prior data is completed.At the end of the paper has established a set of urban fire control safety management standardization check table,the table index reflects the management of people within the influence degree of factors on the city fire,combined with the criteria in the table,conduct fire control safety inspection on the spot,so you can get different parts of the fire management score,quantification of the fire control management level.In addition,combined with the previous to the scientificity and professionalism of the safety engineering major and makes the final calculation result more scientific and reasonable.The ultimate goal of this paper is to analyze the historical data and combine it with the current real-time data.Through the analysis of the results,the perception of urban fire risk is achieved,and the risk of fire in different communities in the city is obtained.Provide some advice and decisions for fire management for urban fire safety managers.