Research On The Reliability Of Heat Consumer Based On Markovian Method

This paper proposed the analysis method of heat customer reliability based on the theory of Markov on the basis of Russia’s heat users’ reliability study in order to establish the reliability evaluation index system of heat customers. Then, the reliability evaluation index was applied to the evaluation of pipe network design and the heat users in known pipe network.which verified the correctness of this appraisal theory and analyzed the practical significance of each indicator.Analysis of the heat customers’ reliability involves the probability model of heat network, the hydraulic calculation model in fault condition, the temperature drop model of the heat users in variable condition, and the application of heat load duration diagram based on the users’ classification.Before the establish of reliability index system, this paper divided heat users systematically according to different classification criteria,and gave the fault definition of repairable and non-repairable system of heat users. Also reliability evaluation of heat users that involved some complex concepts including fault heat supply, heat users’ redundancy time and the critical outdoor temperature which does not guarantee the users’ indoor temperature were put forward and its solving method was studied.Then, this paper analyzed the structural reliability,Thermal reliability and composite reliability of heat customer and evaluation index was given. quality. Structural Reliability is namely connectivity of heat pipe network and user, which is guaranteed through probability indicators. Thermal reliability that reflected in the indoor temperature is lower than the minimum allowable temperature side is the comfort in the room of heat user, which is guaranteed by deterministic indicators. And composite reliability is based on the comprehensive evaluation that structural reliability making to the thermal reliability of heat consumers in heat period, it evaluate combined effect of heat quality for heat users using visual indicator.After the evaluation system of heat reliability for heat users was established. This article performed numerical example for the known pipe network and explored heat users’ reliability indicator to evaluate the combined effect of heat quality in the system.