The Research On Multi-reservoir Joint Operation Of Supplying Water In Jinchang City

Water resources are controlling factor of economic social development and ecological protection. With the rapid development of economic and social, water shortage has become a bottleneck to establish water ecological civilization and develop regional socio-economic. Multi-reservoir joint operation is a systems engineering,which is significance to improve water use efficiency and water guaranteed ability,optimize the allocation of water resources and achieve sustainable development.Based on the actual water regime, the joint operation problems of Xida-he reservoir, Huangcheng-tan reservoir and Jingchuan-xia reservoir in Jinchang city of Shiyang river basin were analyzed and studied under the guidance of water resource systems engineering, with integrated application of the hydrology principle, artificial intelligent algorithm and fuzzy optimization theory. The main research contents and achievements are as follows:(1) Analyze runoff characteristics and rule analysis. The runoffs had no significantly decreasing change and mutation through method of the residual mass diagram and M-K non-parameters rank correlation verification. Moreover their inter-annual oscillation was obvious. The runoff of Xida river, Dongda river and Jinchuan river in design level years(P=50%) were 4.99 m~3/s, 9.54 m~3/s and 4.34 m~3/s respectively by analyzing P-Ⅲ typical hydrological frequency curve.(2) Predict and analyze inflow of reservoirs. An integrated prediction model was established based on ARMA, BP-ANN and LIB-SVM, that had better prediction accuracy and reliability because of the complementary advantages of three single models.(3) Water requirement forecast for reservoirs. Three water requirement scenarios were set based on WEAP model. Water requirement of scenariosⅠ~Ⅲ in 2020 were676 million m~3, 681 million m~3 and 672 million m~3 respectively. Corresponding, were712 million m~3, 663 million m~3 and 723 million m~3 respectively in 2030.(4) Study on multi-reservoir joint operation of supplying water. A joint optimal operation model under different water requirement scenarios was established on the basis of the minimum volume of water shortage rate and the maximum water supply benefit. The Pareto solutions were got by calculating the model with Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm. In additional, water supply scheme and operation curve were studied with the method of optimization and simulation. The results show that total water supply of scenariosⅠ~Ⅲ in 2020 were 528 million m~3, 532 million m~3 and 610million m~3 respectively. Corresponding, were 518 million m~3, 531 million m~3 and 598million m~3 in 2030 respectively. The optimal results have obvious advantage both total water supply and annual distribution.(5) Evaluate multi-reservoir operation scheme. The water supply sustainable development coefficient of optimum scheme was 0.775 with fuzzy optimization theory and analytic hierarchy process. It was effective measures to manage water resource scientific by saving water, adjusting industrial structure, promoting water rights trade and strengthening water ecological civilization construction.