Research On Computer Simulation Of Public Opinion Evolution Mechanism Of Bursting Public Events

With the rise and development of micro-blog and other social platforms, the internet users can know public emergency in the first time. Besides, they also reprinted and discussed the event at the same time, thus formed the network public opinion rapidly. The complex occurrence and wide influence of the public emergency made the rumor spread widely which would have bad effect on the social stability. Therefore,the rapid and effective response to public has become an important task for the government to improve the credibility.Firstly, this article explored the behavioral characteristics of the government, the media and the general public in different stages of the evolution of public emergencies on micro-blog by methods of content analysis and multi-case analysis, then determined the factors that affect the evolution of public opinion, such as user ratio,initial attitude, influence, firmness and speed of response, and built the corresponding cellular automata model based on those factors to study the mechanism of the evolution of public emergencies on micro-blog and do computer simulation. The innovation of this article is to add the factor of influence to the cellular automata model and give the method of determining the parameters of the model. In the process of computer simulation, we could observe the effects of these factors on public opinion events micro-blog opinion evolution by controlling the single variable, and we found that the increasing of the proportion of the government users, the influence of the government, or the response speed of the government would increase the number of public opinion in the positive remarks.Secondly, in order to verify the validity of the model, this article analysis the case of the "12.31 Shanghai trample" event, determined the model parameters, did the computer simulation and compare the simulation results with the actual situation.Finally, some suggestions based on the conclusions are put forward for government to improve the ability of dealing with the spreading of sudden public events on micro-blog, such as improving the response speed of the incident, timely publish event-related information, increasing the number of the government micro-blog and increase the punishment of the rumor. So our government agencies can be more scientific, reasonable and effective respond to the spreading of unexpected public events on micro-blog, while actively guide the public opinion and improve the government’s credibility.