Research On Risk Management Of TOT Hydropower Project Franchise

At present, under the background of China government allows social capital through franchise methods such as participation urban infrastructure investment and operations. BOT, TOT and PPP financing model to attract social capital injection, participating risk-sharing pattern in multiple projects,But in the franchising period of the project, because the influence of subjective and objective factors, such as, all kinds of problems exposed a lot of risk in financing model. Only for the franchising period project for effective and targeted risk management, to ensure that the project can run smoothly.This paper based on the National Natural Science Foundation of project "research on operating public infrastructure TOT Hall3D Model", West Zhijiang hydro-junction as a case,the following three parts of study the risk of hydropower station project charter period in the TOT financing mode.First of all, based on the objective oriented project planning, in the West Zhijiang hydro-junction survey and other hydropower project based on the case report, in the problem list and tree to identify the project in the franchising period may face various risks.Secondly, based on improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory, using soft of Matlab and Scilab, For West Zhijiang hydro-junction quantitative assessment of risk, to the West Zhijiang TOT hydropower project of power plant as an example of the risk of the franchising period put forward the following conclusions:(1) Weight sorting for the TOT hydropower project risk factors:operational risk, economic risk, management risk, policy risk, environment risk.(2)In15secondary risk index, the top three risks in turn as follows:insufficient water flow larger cause a change in the profitability, financial situation and operating costs.(3) The importance of the risk factors of the West ZhiJiang hydro-junction, in turn, is a financial situation changes and organization set the chaos and confusion of management, more of the hydropower project investment and financing policy and in violation of the relevant environmental protection laws and regulations.Thirdly, according to the results of risk assessment of improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory, and put forward countermeasures and measures of different level of risk, the key risk factors and risk target group.Based on TOT concession hydropower projects and case studies of risk, provide reference for the transfer and other operations late TOT hydropower projects and projects.