An Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Social Financing Structure And Asset Price Level In China

On April14，2011，the people’s bank of China released for the ifrst time"social financing scale" as a more generalized monetary circulation monitoringindicators. Using the index statistics of the entity economy development of ourcountry financial support for the financial system in the process of financing,financing structure and system to our country society is divided into indirectfinancing is given priority to with local and foreign bank loans and to trust loans,entrusted loans, corporate bonds，non-financial companies IPO financing ofdirect financing. But look from the current economic situation, China’s realeconomy rapid growth in financing scale has appeared under the condition ofrelatively weaker trend. Liu Yuhui famous scholars call this phenomenon "sink"potential growth，at the same time put forward the our country social financingmay exist in the process of support the real economy to the vitrual economyshunt. Based on the thinking of the problem, the current domestic most studiesabroad focused on indirect financing bank credit mainly on the relationship ofeconomic development, part of the study are discussed from the point of view ofcredit property prices and stock market growth indicators related to relationship,verify the promoting effect of bank credit to the real economy and in the processof financing capital flows to the fact that the real estate market. However, theincrease in the scale of direct financing in China in recent years, many layers offinancial market gradually perfect, in social ifnancing scale of direct financingand indirect financing close. Starting from direct financing for the analysis ofthe real economy and virtual economy oriented research relatively blank, at thesame time of direct financing and indirect financing structure between research,the majority of the efficiency of the inquiry focused on a single field. From theinformation rent and information cost, fallacy correlation analysis, financingpath optimization theory method to balance the relationship between the indirectfinancing and direct financing. Is financing development present situation, will further expand the scale of direct financing, began to gradually replace theindirect ifnancing as the main entity economy support, at the same time as abreakthrough of the reform of the financial market in China, is expected to moreinnovative. Future economic development in the indirect financing and directfinancing to keep a balanced and reasonable structure, break up market alonebig situation, the existing bank to improve the structure of the capital marketfinancing system, improve the efficiency of the real economy financing hasgreat theoretical significance. This article from the virtual economy to realeconomy shunt overflow Angle, by using the quantitative model analysis ofsocial financing support impact on the real economy, and points of directfinancing and indirect financing make structured comparison between two parts.Under current economic development is in order to veriyf the effect of financing,this paper selected the central bank released "social structure" of financing ofbank credit, the society for comparison and analysis of direct financing, andselects the industrial added value, CPI and M2index to explain economicgrowth in the operation of the real economy, the price level, the money supply.Get bank credit VAR equation established, the direct financing model estimatesand residual error between the central bank statistics, define the residuals for thereal economy in the process of attracting financing leakage part, will further theresiduals as variables of relevance to real estate market, the stock market impactstudy. Each step in the process of the entire study adopted the comparativeeffect of direct financing and indirect financing, the analysis of the effect in theeconomic operation, the differences on asset prices, from the direction of thefinancing structure optimization to full text as a whole.Full text main chapters are arranged as following: chapter1introduction,this paper expounds the research background of this article, thinking methodsand the existing research status at home and abroad; Chapter2monetary policyconduction of economic theory development, system elaborated the nationalmonetary policy support for economic development path. In chapter3, theconnotation of social financing present situation and the change of structure. illustrates the significance of social ifnancing and combining with China’sfinancing structure change trend of market conditions, the various points in thefield of development. Chapter4social financing structure is the empiricalanalysis of the impact of asset prices，respectively, set up a bank loan andsociety and the real economy of direct financing main indicators of VAR vectorautoregression equation, by Johansen Cointegration test, granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition method, verified therelationship between economic variables, and the relationship between the bankloans，the contrast between the direct financing. Finally scored the ifnancingstructure of different bank loan statistics and VAR model estimated residuals,social statistics and VAR model of direct financing estimated residuals, used torepresent financing in support of the real economy in the process of leak parts;social financing lfows to stocks，real estate market estimates, the use of chapter4of finally obtaining the residuals, as a variable, and then respectively affect thestock market, the real estate market of the other variable model is establishedContrast analysis of the real economy finance direction of flow to real estate，it’and Chinas real estate industry rapid development in recent years, the overallsize than the present situation of the stock market is consistent, the hot realestate industry has attracted a lot of money. And from the empirical results ofthis article assume, part of the money may be from the real economy shunt andin social financing, ifnancing structure and points lead to shunt effect also tohave certain difference, Chapter5the interpretation of the empirical conclusionsand policy Suggestions, explain the above empirical results is given in thefinancing structure optimization, the direction of the real estate financingregulation policy recommendations; Chapter6the conclusion, evaluate theexisting results，looking to the future research emphases.