Analysis Of Securities Comment Based On Effective Market Hypothesis

The essay takes Shanghai Security News as a typical example to study the effectiveness of predictive commentaries on individual stocks.Based on the efficient market hypothesis and the existent empirical research on the weak-efficiency status of China A stock market, the essay used statistic method to calculate the frequency of the usage of technical analysis and fundamental analysis in the sample commentaries.We came to the conclusion that in the studied period of2003to2010, the frequency of technical analysis usage dropped while that of fundamental analysis increased. A logarithmic function was fitted which shows the growth speed of effectiveness was inconsistent overtime. Meanwhile, the significant drop of the technical analysis frequency appeared to be later than the obvious increase of fundamental analysis frequency, revealing a non-synchronous phenomenon.