| Real estate is a pillar industry involved in the national economy and the people’s livelihood. How to pacify price fluctuations and promote the healthy development of real estate industry is of important theoretical significance and practical value. As the experience of foreign mature real estate market, we can conclude that the higher marketization suggests more standardized markets, and it is more effective to regulate the price by market-oriented means. As for China, as the microcosmic bodies in the real estate market gradually mature, the macro environment improves continuously and the marketization reaches higher gradually, using more market-based monetary policy tools to control property prices will be the trend of future development.First of all, by analyzing how monetary policy affects the real economy, this thesis sums up the main mechanism of monetary policy influencing the real estate price, which is also the theoretical basis of this paper. Based on that, the paper discusses how monetary policy affects real estate prices for major economies in different periods. Taking the development history of the real estate industry as a key point and based on how monetary policy regulates real estate price and the effects, the following three models are concluded: Singapore – under the dual structure of Zu housing and commercial housing, it is effective to control price fluctuation by exchange rate; Japan has an imbalanced population structure, so it is of no significance to ease the price with monetary policy after the bubble bursts; America- the micro bodies treat the industry cycle rationally on the mature real estate market, so after the bubble bursts, monetary policy still can effectively promote the recovery of the real estate industry.By learning from those countries, this paper further studies the how the special Chinese monetary policy relates the real estate market, and makes an empirical analysis based on three theoretical channels such as interest rate and monetary supply as well as exchange rate channel. Choosing monthly data of 13 years from 2002 to 2014 as samples, the paper concludes that monetary supply is significantly associated with the real estate prices and they move together; while interest rate and real estate price tend to move together, there was no significant correlation between them; the correlation is significant according to statistics by exchange rate but it fails to pass the Granger test, that is to say it lacks causality statistically. On this basis, considering the effects brought by the special binary structure of China’s economy, to distinguish the dependent variables, namely, to do empirical analysis respectively on fluctuations of real estate prices in coastal and inland areas, this paper draws a conclusion that the transmission channel of money supply in the coastal area has a sensitivity which is twice of that of inland areas. This paper further analyze the reasons behind the empirical results, and puts forward the hypothesis that "marginal holding short-term assets tend to diminish", suggesting that with the increase of income and wealth, the private sector will hold a relatively small proportion of short-term assets such as currency, demand deposits, and are more willing to hold long-term assets such as stocks, real estate. And the hypothesis is proved based on the data. Based on the above hypothesis, money supply rising in coastal areas where is abundant with wealth is more likely to promote regional real estate demand, which better explains the phenomenon that housing prices in coastal areas are more sensitive.Finally, this paper suggests corresponding monetary policies on how to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry in China; meanwhile, it also puts forward different monetary tools for different regions according to the hypothesis " marginal holding short-term assets tend to diminish" so as to tap the full potential of monetary policy in regulating real estate price fluctuations. |
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