Analysis Of Shanghai Electric Power Demand

Power resources, as an indispensable part of the energy and the important foundation of the national economy, serve a very significant role in sustainable economic development and improving people’s living standard. Under the international background of global warming, energy shortages and worsening pollution, the development of low-carbon economy with low power consumption and lower emissions to achieve sustainable development is becoming a common choice for economic development of the world including China.While, Power industry is also one of the major high-energy consumption industries in our country, which makes it undertake very essential and special responsibility in resources conservation and initiating environment-friendly society.Along with the rapid development of Shanghai economy in recent years, is the development of electric power industry, as well as the growing more quickly energy consumption, which causes increasingly prominent contradictions of growth of demand and supply. How to make a reasonable plan for limited energy resources and speeding up economic construction has become an important study topic. More and more scholars join the research of the internal relation between energy consumption and economic growth. A reasonable analysis on the electricity demand is not only beneficial to the resources allocation but also provide a valuable reference for the future economic policy to adapt to the trend of sustainable development.This paper body started with the summarization of power supply and demand of whole China and then concrete analysis of Shanghai power’s development and the status quo including three major industries and urbanization about electricity consumption. In this basis, this paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the relations between electricity demand and its influential factors such as GDP, degree of urbanization and industrialization applying Unit root test, Granger causality test and Johansen test. The results from empirical analysis on related data during 1990’s and 2013’s through Eviews7.0 demonstrated that a long-term co-integration relation existed among Shanghai electricity demand and influential factors, and the Correction coefficient in VECM(Vector Error Correction Model) is-0.37, which showed that about 37% deviation will be corrected between short-term electricity demand and the long-term trend. Then, this paper ran simulations to predict based on the obtained long-term co-integration model for historical data, which showed prediction accuracy of the model. The demand for electricity in Shanghai in 2020’s was predicted according to the model and predicted various factors.Finally, above all study and analysis on the electric power industry development, this paper put forward corresponding adjustment suggestion facing with problems.