The Analysis Of Oil Demand Factors In China Based On Structural Variable

In recent years, with the rapid growth of domestic economy of China, the demand of energy is increasing rapidly, especially for oil demand that have strategic and scarce properties. Contradiction between supply and demand of oil and the pressure on resources and environment have become important factors, which influence and restrict the sustainable development of economics and society of China and so do national security.This paper simulate oil demand in China based on cointegration theory and introduce the long-run equilibrium into the short-term fluctuations model for error correction model. Meanwhile, based on the status quo of the development of China, this paper introduce the (quasi-) structure variables: economy, traffic system, technology and population density, which have Chinese characteristics. The structure analysis of error correction model derived the factors,which affect the oil demand of China for the long-run equilibrium, are population density, economy, traffic system, technology and oil prices, and economy, traffic system and technology are introduced into model as the structure variables, and population density is quasi-structure variables; However, the oil demand of China in the short-term fluctuations is influenced by the fluctuations of population density and economic growth; The impact of population density on oil demand of China, whether long-term or short-term, is the most significant; The result of Granger causality tests is that only one-way causal relationship exists between China's demand for oil and oil prices, industrial structure and the density of the oil consumption: oil demand is the Granger cause of oil prices, industrial structure and the density of oil consumption, but the price of oil industrial structure and density of oil consumption is not the Granger cause of oil demand.This paper, according to the actual conditions of China, systematic study the oil demand of China and conclude that the large numbers of population, the unreasonable growth of economy and the inadequate traffic system is the major reason, which lead to the oil demand of China is running at high level for a long-term, and the improvement of technology can alleviate the crazy growth, but the efforts is relatively insufficient.. According to the conclusion of studying, this paper put forward the relevant suggestions, which is suitable for the status quo of the development of China, reflecting the integrity of the research.