An Empirical Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Stock Price

The real estate industry takes important position of the national economy, occupies an irreplaceable position in the economic operation. The real estate industry revenue has accounted for 15% of the total revenue. But now people can not to do the investment directly in real estate industry, need through the capital market. The most commonly used is the investment is stocks.This paper was carried out on 30 real estate stocks with factor analysis, in order to extract the potential factors affecting the real estate stock fluctuation. The first factor trend is very close to the market trend, the second factor is very close to the macroeconomic regulation and control policy. So we can take the view that they are intrinsic factors influencing the stock fluctuation.The influence factors of the market trend is very complex, analyze the influence of the national macro policy in this big space for the property stocks. We choose lending and deposit rate, reserve requirements, mortgage rates,open market operations and the difference of the housing policy. After the research discovery, the positive factors in theory may not have immediate effect on the stock market, even contrary to the trend, but any economic research should rely on the national economic situation, national regulatory policy is not all in order to promote economic growth, also want to maintain economic stability, increase the confidence of people.Finally on the real estate index using ARIMA model to carry on the simple forecast, model errors are smaller, if other conditions remain unchanged, the short-term real estate stock prediction more accurate.