The Analysis Of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Real Estate Price In China

Since 1998, because of strong governmental encouragement and support, China's real estate industry achieved extraordinary development, the skyrocketing housing prices have increasingly become affected the healthy development of the national economy and social life of prominent problems. To that end, the government has promulgated a series of macro-control policies, but because of the real estate involved too much, many factors influence, even control policy failed to achieve the desired performance. Theory sector of the real estate prices and the increase in the number of study, but the vast majority of studies have only a certain angle from the analysis, focus on a particular aspect of change on the impact of changes in the price of real estate, or only from the theoretical analysis, no empirical results, come to the conclusion obvious shortage lack of convincing. In this paper, using econometric methods, in-depth analysis of the impact on real estate prices on the basis of various effects, focusing on macroeconomic factors impact on real estate prices.The study thinking of the thesis is clear and simple. Firstly, in the literature reviews, numbers of research articles on real estate are cited to narrow the range of the research through basic conceptions, introduce the status of China's real estate market, and then the objectively identify the impact of China's real estate prices of the main factors. Secondly, in explains the transmittal mechanism and the principles of the macro-regulations measures. Thirdly, it uses one of the Granger causality test methods to analyze the efficiency of the macro-regulations between 1999 and 2007. On this basis, the use of VAR model and the impulse response function Empirical Analysis of the various factors on the extent of the impact of the price of real estate. The final content of this paper is a summary of the conclusions drawn in this paper.Then this papr puts forwards some relevant policy based on the conclusions.This paper is structured as follows:Chapter one is the introduction. This chapter makes a brief introduction on the background, significance, the content and the major innovation of this paper.Chapter two is the study of the basic theory of the real estate market. This chapter major defines the related conception of the real estate; we discuss the characteristics of the real estate price.Chapter three indicates that the kernel problem in current real estate market is price problem by analyzing the development and the existent problems of china real estate market, and then points out that is has great meaning to study the real estate price fluctuation through theoretical analysis and using international experience for referene.Chapter four puts up empirical research on the basis of theoretical analysis in the front two chapters. Six macroeconomic factors affecting real estate price in China were chosen for the Granger causality test using the quarterly data between 1999 and 2007, to weigh the effects of the policies on real estate. The analysis suggests that: Firstly, the impact of the banking lending and the M2 is not evident. Secondly, the impact of GDP and RMB exchange rate is not evident. Thirdly, the impact of Shanghai composite index and CPI is evident, the index of the housing price is negative correlation with Shanghai composite index and CPI.Chapter five is the policy recommendations. In order to promote the healthy development of real estate, do a good job and coordinate the development of the national economy, this paper from the State, local governments, developers and the banking system and so on, makes the specific policy recommendations.The innovations are derived from the following: trying to take most of the macro-regulations on real estate into one analyzing framework and evaluate their efficiency so as to explain the reality.