A Regional Study On The Forecast Of Pension Expenditure In China

At the present, the aging of the population is serious, and pension issues have become increasingly prominent, which bring great pressure to the balance of pension insurance, so that some areas can not be self-sustaining on pension balance. In order to maintain a sustained and healthy social pension insurance system, we need to undertake a study of pension insurance immediately. This model is based on the urban population for the study, from the regional perspective of forecasting pension insurance payments.Comprehensive study of the balance of pension insurance, regional differences of pension insurance, and the impact of the retirement age for pension payments, and analyze regional differences of pension payments and influences of the retirement age for pension payments in different region.The main contents of this article include:First, because our country has not completed the national pension insurance, so this article tries to staticlly describe the situation of pension insurance in different areas of our country. We select the relevant pension index to cluster analysis of 31 provinces areas, and get three different object regions- Beijing city, Heilongjiang province and Guangdong province.This paper adopt the index, which can eliminate the impact of demographic factors and can show the status of endowment insurance, and can better reflect the balance of payments over a period of time.Second, population dynamics model established by setting the mortality, fertility rate, net migration rate, and we use this model to estimate the dynamic development of population and the changing age structure.Third, we use time series model to calculate the average wage of worker, which is the basis for predicting the average pension.We establish pension payments model for three representative regions,and get dynamic analysis on pension balances of representative areas,then measure and compare the differences of pension insurance payments in different urban areas.Fourth, we set a new judge for evaluating the effect of relieving the pension payments pressure by deferring retirement age.By changing the condition of retirement age, we get the important conclusion throughhorizontal and longitudinal contrast, and analyze the differences of pension insurance payments in different urban areas, and the effect of relieving the pension payments pressure by deferring retirement age. As a basis to verify: whether the retirement age can improve endowment insurance balance; whether the differences in the effect of relieving the pension payments pressure is obvious, we can provide some suggestions and conclusions to achieve national endowment insurance.