Research On Cash Flow Forecast Based On Automobile Dealer Risk Assessment System

The competition of automobile market intensifies rapidly that automobile dealers are facing great crisis. On the one hand, fierce competition leads to the increase of profitability risks; on the other hand, the insufficient of cash flow becomes a serious problem among automobile dealers. Some dealers may even break down due to the bad performance of cash flows. Although the automobile dealer(4S shop) model has been introduced to China for many years, many dealers still do not have good management ability and risk consciousness. One significant problem is that many dealers’ business plan isn’t reasonable enough. In addition, due to the poor management performance, many dealers can’t achieve their business plan. These issues will undoubtedly increase the automobile dealers’ business risk.In order to help dealers with better risks assessment, this paper tries to develop a dealer risk assessment system. Through the risk assessment system, we can see the dealer’s main business risk and find disadvantages of dealers’ operation performance. After risk assessment, we can build a business improve project for dealers which makes dealers’ operation plan more reasonable. Finally, we can help dealers to manage and predict cash flows as reasonable as possible.In this paper, X dealer is selected as a case. During the research period, we had a lot of course study and collected a large number of survey data as first-hand information. The research started from the analysis of X dealer’s current situation. Then, we assessed X dealer’s main operation risks and gave improved measures through risk assessment system. Finally, we gave a cash flow prediction method based on risk assessment system.