The Transmission Mechanism Of Trade Fluctuation From The Perspective Of Global Value Chain

Trade fluctuate with income is normal, it is generally believed that trade volatility will be greater than income volatility, because the structure of GDP in goods and services is not the same as structure of trade in goods and services.In United States after the 2008 financial crisis, trade fluctuates much larger than the fluctuations in income, the reason is no longer a commodity structure of trade can explain, the academic community is generally considered to be the nature of the global value chain of trade appeared abnormal fluctuations, this paper based on global value chains (GVC) theory,extracted four main transmission mechanism of influence of extraordinary volatility of this trade, including trade superposition mechanism, inventory adjustment mechanism, order adjustment mechanism and trade credit mechanisms, as well as "bullwhip effect" in the transmission mechanism of the synthesis of the four formed. Through macro monthly statistics, I established impulse response model to analyze, finding that the transmission mechanism described above has a significant influence on the volatility of the conclusion of China’s trade, and thus to improve our foreign trade policy and other aspects of the relevant policy recommendations.This paper includes 6 parts. Part 1 made a brief comment about GVC, trade fluctuations characteristics and its causes, and GVC trade fluctuation characteristics and conduction mechanism, from multiple perspectives I analysis the domestic and foreign research situation on this problem, the development level and trend, analysis the existing research contributions and further improvement and development. Part 2 analyze characteristics of production and organization of GVC, content,flow and proper ties in GVC trade. The relationship of GVC and trade fluctuation are also analyzed. The third part puts forward four kinds of trade volatility transmission mechanism in GVC:Trade super position mechanism refers to the production process due to increase across borders by marginal trade tendency, trade volume are amplified by the accounting statistical difference; order adjustment mechanism refers to the GVC order to adjust the product specific requirements for the formation of the linkage effect based on inventory; the adjustment mechanism in GVC governance innovation, international trade due to the presence of measurement error and fixed transaction cost, the instant inventory system; credit mechanism of trade due to GVC credit or not, the bottleneck effect leads to international buyers encounter a series of trade credit freeze, trade intensified fluctuation. The formation and synthesis in several transmission mechanism under the "whiplash effect". The fourth part respectively in total, industry category, product category and enterprise property level analysis of fluctuation characteristics in China’s GVC trade. Chapter 5 further empirical analysis and tectonic pulse response model specific analysis of the mechanism how the trade fluctuation of GVC. The last part is the conclusion and policy suggestions. It is suggested that we should make relevant policies of the conduction mechanism.