| Agriculture is the foundation of society and economy. As agricultural production has a long cycle time and its production and sale have characteristics of being divided in time and space, the prices waving would have the effects of time lag, thereby affecting agricultural production. However, this fluctuation will lead to price fluctuation, affecting the farmers’ income and their planting enthusiasm, and further pose threat to the food security. On the other hand, the sharp increase in food price can in turn affect ordinary consumer’s life standard, threatening the social stability. Soybean in our country has a unique position in the field of food supply, but the amount of domestic produced soybean saw a constantly declining from 2006.Correspondingly, the amount of imported soybeans increased to nearly 70 million tons from 2006 to 2014. At the same time, soybean prices also showed a large range of fluctuations. This paper focus on two aspects of domestic produced soybean and imported soybean and comprehensively discussed the impact of low price imported soybean and of competitive crop prices on domestic soybean market. Based on the analysis. Based on the price monitoring data of the Ministry of agriculture, this paper (1) uses seasonal adjustment and H-P filtering method to analyze the status of the price fluctuation of China’s soybean industry chain, and the trend of price change; (2) uses Grainger Granger causality test to analyze the key areas of the soybean industry in each trend; (3) employs the VAR model based on the conclusion of the trend and the price leading region, using impulse response analysis and variance decomposition method to analyze the price transmission mechanism in soybean industry chain;(4) based on the latest trend of domestic soybean prices, analyzes the vertical price fluctuation mechanism in domestic soybean industry chain and find out the reasons for the change.Our conclusion:(1) Soybean support policy is effective to reduce the domestic soybean price volatility; (2) The leading region of the domestic soybean crushing industry has changed from Heilongjiang province to Liaoning province, while the leading region of imported soybean crushing industry has changed from Jiangsu province to Shandong province. Heilongjiang province is the dominant region for domestic soybean pricing; (3)Soybean oil crushed by imported soybean determines the price of soybean oil industry, and soybean oil crushed by domestic soybean is facing insufficient demand. According to the demand of the recent trend period, soybean oil leads the price of soybean crushing industry chain and the price of domestic produced soybean has not been in line of the pricing of soybean crushing industry chain; (4) Domestic produced soybean consumption demand is far greater than the crushing demand, and thus driving the cost, while the crushing industry price transmission is pulled by demand.Accordingly, the following suggestions are put forward:(1) To strengthen agricultural price monitoring and timely guide production expectations; (2) Actively organize targeted marketing interventions; (3) Increase the scale of the planting industry and enhance bargaining power; (4) To effectively distinguish between different markets and targeted to solve the problem of different market demand. |
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