A Study On The Impact Of Farmers' Income In Southwest Minority Areas

The whole society of China focus on the Problems about Agriculture,Ruralareas and Peasantry, as the peasantry is big part of China.Since the dramatic change in mainland China, 1978, it performed a rapid growth in the urban residents’ income, so Chinese economy was well promoted. Simultaneously the income of peasantry has also performed a stable growth continuously. But compared with the urban residents’ income, peasantry’s income increased so slowly, and a huge gap has shown in the income between urban and rural. The Problems about Agriculture,Ruralareas and Peasantry are still serious and prominent, especially in the western minority areas. Therefore, studing on the factors that effect at the growth of peasantry’s income could not only help to increase the growth rate of peasantry’s income in the western minority areas, promote such a coordinated development on economy among different regions that maked them achieve common prosperity, but also to strengthen national unity, protect the country from social unrest. Previous studies on the factors that effect at Chinese peasantry’s income mainly by estimating the function of income and computing it through the ordinary least squares, or by a quantile regression modle, or by a multilevel model. But all the researchers selected variables with experience, made the results uncertain and suffer from much risk.This paper introduce the variable selection model in the research of peasantry’s income, and study various variable selection methods in statistical model with factor variables. The primary data of rural household come from a survey in Honghe Autonomous County Yunnan Province 2010. From the statistical point, analyses the important explanatory variables objectively base on the information of data. First of all, made candidated variable from three aspects about the resource rural household had, the income structure of rural family and the externally environmental factors. Then, made a linear model of households’ income based on the candidated variables, analysesed its significant influence, and discussed the effect of multicolinearity in modle. Finally, selected the important variables through the subset selection method and the variable shrinkage methods(Ridge, LASSO, SCAD), that means the important factors work on the rural family’s income. Analysesed the influence of the important variable effect at the growth of peasantry’s income and its characteristics. This study overcome the subjectivity from variable selection in previous research. Honghe Autonomous County is a tipycal represent of minority areas in Yunnan Province, even in China, so study with it could describe the characteristics of minority areas. With variable selection methods, we find that eduction is a vital factor to the income of rural family, and the infuence come from the average level of household, but not the highest level in the family. Geographical factor also effect at the growth of rural family’s income, this influence mainly come from the hypsography, but not the distance from urban town.