A Study On The Impact Of International Hot Income On China 's Banking Liquidity Risk

As an important part of the global short-term capital, hot money has becomeone of the most active strength in the world economy’s. driven by the expectedappreciation of RMB and the assets, a large number of hot money influx ofdomestic, both the Chinese official and IMF have recognized "hot money has beeneyeing the Chinese". Large-scale hot money injection can temporarily relieve thecountry’s short-term funding needs, make up for domestic funding gap, stimulatefinancial markets prosperity at the same time, hot money will affect the liquidity ofthe banking system through impact on asset and liability structure, affect the stabilityof the financial system.The main contents of this paper include the following three aspects:1.model isdesigned to measure the scale of hot money in China: using residual method,combined with the BoP, to analysis the possibility of greater volatility of cross-bordershort-term liquidity;2.conduction mechanisms of hot money in the banking systemliquidity: based on the critical value method, from the size of loanable funds, assetand liability structure, financial development environment, risk contagion effect ofhot money analysis liquidity risk commercial banks;3. by designing stress scenarios ofchanges in the deposit reserve ratio, interest rates, exchange rate to analyze theliquidity bearing capacity of commercial banks.The conclusions of this paper include the following4aspects:1. in the contextof capital controls, hot money mainly through international trade under the currentpseudo-reported, commodity prices pseudo newspaper, advances in internationaltrade funds or deferred, under financial items FDI, QFII, debt and currency swapsinflows capital;2. the beginning of large-scale entry of hot money is about2004,from2001to2011are about$1.1trillion of hot money flow into China, from the changesof real estate yields and change in the scale of hot money, a lot of hot money inflowsinto the real estate field;3. from2003to2012, the hot impact money on thestability of the banking system rose by seven percentage points, the bank’s ownimpact on the stability of the banking system declined by10percentage points,macroeconomic indicator impact remained unchanged;4.in a single liquidity riskfactor, under different scenarios dynamic stress tests，os, the reserves, interest ratesand exchange rates affect the liquidity of commercial banks in the range of16.89%-35.89%、0.84%-4.24%、0.84%-4.24%;5.taking into account the history of adjustmentsince2007the deposit reserve ratio, the market-based interest rate, strong expectations of RMB appreciation, this paper considers the interest rates of severescenario, changes in reserve by0.5percentage points, changes in exchange ratesunder5or10percent the risk profile is reasonable, that at this stage, the statutorydeposit reserve ratio, interest rates, exchange rate linkage degree of influence on thelikelihood of liquidity of commercial banks between16.40%-22.53%larger.