Research On Implicit Carbon Emissions In China 's Export Trade

Currently, the energy consumption of the global release CO2 and other greenhouse gases(Green House Gases, GHG) potential threat global climate change has become the focus of international attention. As an important part of the national economy, foreign trade is one of the "troika" of economic growth.During 30 years, our total volume of import and export trade has increased by more than 100 times, with an average annual growth rate as high as 18%, and has become the world’s second largest trading nation. Also, CO2 emissions present similar growth in China, 1979-2001, the growth is relatively slow, after WTO accession, CO2 emissions increased rapidly and the average annual growth rate of10% or more. Foreign trade and CO2 emission have the same trend.Based on the above background, the input-output model applied to the embodied carbon emissions estimates of China’s foreign trade, using the input-output data measurement software Matlab R2012 b measurement software,and chooses the eight kinds of fuel and calculates the corresponding CO2 emissions coefficient, and then solves the corresponding carbon emissions coefficients of industry departments completely and directly. The thesis, by analyzing the emissions of embodied carbon in international trade in quality and quantity, comes to some primary conclusions. First, China’s export trade have negative effects to the global carbon emissions. Since the 1978 the reform and opening in China, the energy consumption and carbon emissions presents rapid growth in the trend with China’s economy increase. By this calculation, the implicit carbon emissions in our export trade has risen from 2002 tonnes in 1.58 billion to 2010 tonnes in 3.24 billion, increased by 2.05 times.Second, with the rapid expansion of China’s foreign trade volume, the size effect of implicit carbon emissions increase significantly. The improvement of Energy efficiency and production technology(the intensity effect) is conducive to reduce carbon emissions, but weak in the scale effect. It makes the change of structure effect on implicit carbon emissions uncertainty: the trade structure optimization to promote implied to reduce carbon emissions, and the trade structure degradation will lead to the implied the rise in carbon emissions.The innovation of this paper is as follows: First, this article select eight kindsof fuels such as gasoline, kerosene as industry sector consumption source, carbon emissions will be calculated on the basis of a more scientific and accurate because of selecting more than five kinds of fuel as a source of carbon compare with the previous literature. Second, this paper become more scientific and comprehensive because it not only studied in general embodied carbon emissions in our export trade but also it’s driving factors, different industries and industry.