| Since the reform and opening up, China is starting to promoting comprehensively urbanization from governmental level. In recent years, more and more evidence has proved that the continuing growth of city residents has become a huge ttourism market. More specificity, the city becomes a strong point of modern tourism, and the relationship between urbanization and tourism development are more prominence.In the introduction of "Views on the Acceleration of the Development of Tourism Industry" in 2009, the Chinese State Council mentioned that increasingly popular and diversified consumer demand offers a new opportunity for tourism development. Industrialization and urbanization are two engines impetus of the tourism development in our country. Especially the high economic growth and urbanization process promote the rapid development of tourism obviously. Then, how urbanization promotes the tourism? What are relationships between them?From such a perspective this paper takes the Xi’an for example. By defining the relevant concepts and grooming the senior research results, this paper structures the dynamic mechanism of tourism promotion by urbanization. Then, this paper bases on statistical data and the data integration, calculating the correlation of four heavy mechanism and tourism. Based on the dynamic mechanism and the time series data, this paper analyzes the granger causality between urbanization and tourism. The results are:(1) The dynamic mechanism and tourism are significantly related.The correlation of tourism resources abundance and inbound, domestic and local tourism are 0.974, 0.926 and 0.953. Tourism resources abundance increases each unit; inbound and domestic tourists increase 13,750 and 1.268 million, the travel rate of local resident’s increase 6.02%.Railway has the most significant correlation with domestic tourism and then the inbound tourism, and the last is the local tourism. Aviation and highway and domestic, local tourism are significantly related. The passenger quantity of railway, aviation and highway increase each ten thousand, the inbound tourists increase 90,50 and 30 person-times. The domestic tourists increase 300,250 and 100 person-times. And the travel rate of local residents increase 0.25‰,3.16%o and 0.0‰.The hotel development has the most significant correlation with inbound tourism and then the domestic tourism, and the last is the local tourism. The number of star hotels increases each one, the inbound and domestic tourists increase 3,890 and 1,700 person-times. The number of catering outlets increases each one; the inbound and domestic tourists increase 10 and 20 person-times.Per capita GDP and income increase. And both of them have a quadratic curve relationship with the level of urbanization. Resident’s income increases each thousand yuan, the travel rate increases 33.4%.(2) In the stage of rapid development, the effects of urbanization to attractive, access, tourist reception capacity and resident’s income are obvious. Relatively, the quad mechanism has weak influence.The influences of attractive to inbound, domestic and local tourism are greater than in turn. And the lag period of local tourism is longer. The influence of traffic to domestic tourism is greater than inbound and local tourism. Reception ability only has the causal relationship with inbound tourism. Resident’s income has causal relationship with local tourism in different lag period.Urbanization and the local tourism have causal relationship. And it is the granger reason of inbound tourism and domestic tourism development. The lag period of the influence of urbanization on tourism is longer than in turn.This paper has two innovations:Structure the dynamic mechanism of tourism promotion by urbanization and verify it by detailed data.Put every factor of the dynamic mechanism into granger causal analysis. A total of 21 groups of granger causality model were built. |
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