Research On Measurement And Prevention Of Real Estate Bubble

As early as at the beginning of the 21 st century, Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist Andy xie in his article "the Bursting Property mercifully?" Pointed out that in today’s China is in a period of capital surplus, the real estate industry attracts more and more foreign capital, high returns bubble phenomenon may occur at any time.After ten years, the development of Chinese real estate industry has experienced a roller coaster.With all kinds of capital chain rupture in recent years and the situation of the market hot and cold appear constantly, experts’ views have appeared in the fierce collision, arguing about this.This paper first starts with the definition of the bubble of real estate bubbles are reviewed, then, from two aspects of the causes and harmfulness of the housing bubble, discusses its formation mechanism, provides a qualitative basis for the quantitative analysis and modeling.Then by analyzing the basic situation of the real estate market in kunming, and policy development history and status quo of two angles, as introduces the research background, and clearly the importance of the real estate industry to the whole national economy.Among them, in terms of real estate bubble theory review, the author through a variety of angles to measure and test methods were compared, and the comprehensive measure results.In addition, the article using the method of combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis to study of kunming city real estate market: first use of index evaluation method from the real estate price, supply and demand three sides facing the present situation of the judge;Secondly on the basis of these data using Ramsey model for bubble exists and measure the severity of the;Finally, the causes of this phenomenon to carry on the deep analysis, in order to make reasonable countermeasures.And on the related data of the real estate bubble on the basis of full understanding, the kunming city real estate market potential bubbles some risk prevention measures are put forward, as well as relevant policy Suggestions.