Research On Regional Logistics Demand Forecasting Model And Its Application In Jiangsu Province

In 2022,at the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the General Secretary stressed that we should adhere to the theme of promoting high-quality development,accelerate the construction of a modern economic system,and promote the effective improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the quantity of the economy.After China entered the era of global economic integration,the industrial structure has been continuously optimized,science and technology have been continuously improved,and people’s consumption level has been continuously improved.The logistics industry has gradually developed and grown,and has become a very critical component of China’s tertiary industry in recent years.However,some regions have exposed problems such as low logistics efficiency,inadequate infrastructure construction and unreasonable resource allocation.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the regional logistics demand.This paper uses the method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis to build the logistics demand forecasting model of Jiangsu Province on the basis of relevant theoretical analysis.Jiangsu Province,as a major economic province in China,has a high reference value to explore it as a case,which provides a basis for other provinces and regions to reasonably predict logistics demand and formulate scientific management policies.The main work is as follows:First of all,it summarizes the relevant theories of regional logistics demand,determines the quantitative indicators of logistics demand and the influencing factors of logistics demand in Jiangsu Province on the basis of qualitative analysis,and constructs the regional logistics demand prediction index system.Secondly,this paper selects three quantitative forecasting models of principal component regression analysis,grey GM(1,1),BP neural network and combination forecasting methods to make an empirical analysis of the logistics demand in Jiangsu Province,uses the grey correlation analysis method to establish the indicators included in the model,and respectively uses three single forecasting models to make short-term prediction of the logistics demand in Jiangsu Province.The results show that the three models are feasible.However,considering the limitations of the single prediction model,the Shapley value method in the cooperative game category is introduced,and three single prediction models are given reasonable weights to build a combined prediction model.The results show that the combined model can integrate the advantages of the three single prediction models,further improve the accuracy and stability of the prediction,and make the prediction results more scientific.Later,comparing the actual freight volume data of Jiangsu Province in 2021 published by the National Bureau of Statistics with the predicted value,it was found that the relative error of the combined forecasting model was the smallest,only 1.46%,which further verified the conclusion that the combined forecasting model was optimal.The model predicted that the freight volume of Jiangsu Province from 2022 to 2025 was 3047515800,3106313000,3167708100 and 3230361500 tons,respectively,The conclusion is drawn that the logistics demand in Jiangsu Province is increasing year by year,but the growth rate is significantly lower than that in the past decade.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to promote the growth of logistics demand and the high-quality development of logistics industry in Jiangsu Province.Figure [5] Table [27] Reference [60]...