Based On The Theory Of Structural Change Impact Analysis To Exchange Rate Fluctuations On Inflation

Inflation has always been a hot issue for scholars to study. The three inflation in the last century, although the world wide is not range of inflation, their impact has been a serious threat to the hea lthy development of a country or region economy. Inflation in the development of each country will exist in the last century 70’s developed countries, Latin American countries in the 80’s and 90’s inflation in the developing countries is more serious. Along with the economic globalization, the macro economic variables associated with inflation are more and more, and the transmission channels are more and more complex.In the theoretical circle, the complicated economic phenomenon of inflation and the changeable price attracts the attention of scholars, and the inflation has also produced a lot of research results in the field of trade. Exchange rate transmission model is an important model to study the exchange rate and the transmission of inflation. People’s understanding of the exchange rate has changed from the original full exchange rate to the incomplete exchange rate.First, this paper analyzed the previous exchange rate transfer catastrophe theory and the structure of the literature; secondly, using a Mundell Fleming model of macro model; thirdly, based on Mundell Fleming model, using point mutation test structures in Bai-Perron, according to the time point mutation point of division of the sample, the establishment of Mundell the Fleming model in each segment, transfer efficiency of the exchange rate, draw the following conclusions:(1) on China’s nominal effective exchange rate of endogenous structural mutation detection, found four mutations, respectively in May 2003, October 2005, August 2008 and December 2011;(2) the nominal exchange rate of structural change, that changed in May 2003, October 2005, August 2008 and December 2011 exchange rate transfer efficiency of inflation;(3) the four mutation Point and the actual situation combined with the finding that data on the occurrence of mutation causes most from to external economic shocks, exchange mutation effect on inflation is more complex(4)RMB nominal effective exchange rate of inflation transmission mechanism has lag effect. Finally on the basis of empirical test results to the proposed corresponding countermeasures and suggestions:(1)the cautious use exchange rate adjustment inflation;(2)establish the appropriate time the elasticity of the exchange rate of RMB to adjust(3)establish appropriate emergency measures;(4)establish a consistent with the exchange rate system of import and export strategy.