Research On Real Effective Exchange Rate For RMB

Today the exchange rate change more frequently and the exchange rate adjustment also become more complex. Exchange rate is a very important tool to indicate the price between different kinds of money. But only consider a kind of exchange rate is not enough, we should pay attention to more and calculate the whole affection.For this reason, in this paper I first reviewed the existing article about calculation and forecast on actual effective exchange rate and had some simple appraisal to each theory and method. Second, I used geometry weighted mean method, selected 13 China's main trades and the competition partner countries (area) as the sample, adopt a bilateral trade model and big mac index to measure quarterly data of RMB nominal and real effective exchange rate from 1999 to 2005. And later based on this data, I analyzed the trend of RMB effective exchange rate.Third I use Eview to measure characteristic of the variability of RMB real effective exchange rate and analyze reasons of fluctuation of the real effective exchange rates of RMB through price disassembles and region disassembles.At last, based on others' research I introduced the artificial neural network technology to established the radial basis function network model and use the data of real effective exchange rate which I had calculated to examinate this model and proved that the model which used radial basis function network to established can describe and forecast exchange rate more effective and neutral network can catch the nonlinear factors of exchange rate fluction. At last I used this RBF neutral network model to forecast the trend of effective exchange rate .