Research On The Risk Of Commercial Bank Loan Concentration

In order to effectively deal with the Negative impact of global financial crisis and maintain stable economic growth, the government unveiled a four trillion stimulus policy. But yifu Lin said in "2015 boao Asia BBS", from 2008 to 2012, the central government’s and local government’s actual investment is thirty trillions. The Bank becomes important source of investment funds. a large amount of capital flows into real estate, steel, coal, manufacturing and other fields,under the influence of the government’s encourage and the bank’s pursuit of profit. the Bank makes loans not from the wide perspectives but from the narrow points. eventually it leads the loans of commercial Banks concentrate in a few industries and the customers.the risk of banking loans concentration is more intense. Under the influence of In the economic development pattern and economic structure self-adjust, our country’s economy has entered a superposition of the third phase of the new normal economy.As a result the previous high risk of bank loans concentration appeared gradually.According to the report of industrial and commercial bank which was issued in 2014, non-performing loan ratio rose 2 years continuously, it was almost 124.5 billions in 2014, rising 33%yearly.In addition to the industrial and commercial bank, according to data from other published results, all the bank non-performing loans rose by more than 30%. And the non-performing loans are mainly concentrated in the manufacturing, steel and retail which a lot of capitals centralized in the past. under the background, this article chooses the loan concentration risk as research object. It tries to understand the problem of commercial bank loan concentration in our country, analysis the effects to it’s operating risk,and calculates the reasonable interval of bank loan concentration.it will be a supplement to the existing research results, and provide reference for financial regulation. It is of great significance for the healthy development of Chinese banking industry in the future.On loan concentration in which, according to the Basel Ⅲ expression of loans risk due to a kind of credit risk, so this article focuses on loan concentration of credit risk.Author in the domestic and foreign scholars focus on bank lending, summarized the theories and literature of finishing on the basis of the first has been clear about the loan concentration and of the effect of the risk of the gap, to identify the risk from the framework of study and the reasonable range of the loan concentration, made clear in the state-owned commercial Banks, joint-stock commercial Banks, city commercial Banks as the research object, focuses on commercial bank loan concentration on its credit risk and the reasonable range of the concentration of commercial bank loans.Article according to the annual report disclosure of commercial Banks, by describing the large state-owned commercial Banks, joint-stock commercial Banks, city commercial bank loans to situation, to understand the current situation of banking loans in China. In order to accurately reflect the concentration of commercial bank loans, this article selects industry loan concentration, customer concentration as a measure of loan concentration by Hector fender- Herman index and the exposure ratio method respectively on industry concentration and loan customers of commercial Banks loans to measure concentration, in addition to using the commonly used non-performing loan ratio in terms of risk measure, using the Z index to.Specific studies include stationarity test research, Hausman test, threshold method and the analysis of the threshold effect, the analysis of the threshold effect, according to the results of the threshold level before and after the first of concentration of bank loans on with Z index to measure the bank credit risk show that the slow effect, but the slow effect with loan concentration levels across the threshold value after the rising trend. Based on the empirical results, this paper argues that we should strengthen the supervision of loan concentration regulation, improve the concentration of the legal system and improve the internal management system to prevent commercial Banks industry loan concentration risk.