| During the financial crisis, governments to prevent its economy from recession, both of them inject liquidity to the markets. But when there is a big economic policy uncertainty, banks can’t accurate control of credit assets risk and return in the market distribution, thus taking a more conservative business strategy, which leads to many countries of the banking system liquidity hoarding developed in.This article first combs on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on bank credit related research literature, found that most of the literature of the empirical results support the negative correlation between the two. However, in view of the existing literature mainly through GARCH model constructs the macroeconomic uncertainty index in our country, and Steven Davis, Scotty Baker and others quantified the uncertainty of economic policy, which was hard to be observed, China economic policy uncertainty index is calculated by them, in order to measure provides a new reference for economic policy uncertainty. There is few literature research of bankers confidence influence on bank’s credit behavior, based on the model by adding bankers confidence index, bank characteristic variables and macroscopic and microscopic two aspects of the control variables, as much as possible to reduce the model may be omitted variable problem.Macro level based on the total amount of China’s banking industry data, by constructing the VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition, found that the improvement of economic policy uncertainty has negative influence on the bank’s credit behavior, including short-term loans and long-term loans, are in a slowdown in dropping trend, in the same way, when uncertainty increased, the banker in the future market confidence is insufficient, and bankers confidence boost helps the speeding up of the supply of credit, the index of short-term loans and long-term loans on also has a positive role in promoting. For the change of banking loan balance and short-term loan balance, economic policy uncertainty more confidence in its explanatory power than bankers, and for the change of the medium and long-term loans, bankers confidence has more explanatory power.Micro level based on panel data of 16 listed Banks in China, for the sake of the amount of data, build the bankers confidence index model and does not contain the variable model, the empirical results show that the economic policy uncertainty and bank credit behavior has significant negative correlation relationship. According to the empirical results of characteristic variables and control variables, bank liquidity, broad money growth rate, bank deposit growth are positively related to the bank credit supply.According to the research conclusion, this article put forward policy suggestions to reduce the uncertainty of economic policy in our country, and create a good environment for credit. |
