The Microscopic Interaction Of The Housing Price And Land Price

With the beginning of the housing system reform of 1998, the real estate industry in China has come into a new stage of high speed development, and the land and housing market has evolved and matured in the competition. In the process of marketization, research on relationship between land price and housing price has important theoretical and practical significance to promote the sustained and healthy development of real estate market, but there is no consistent conclusion. On these aspect, domestic scholars mostly use the quarterly or annual data of the whole country or provinces. Reaserch on national and city level is abundant, but the micro level of the reaserch is very lack. This obviously restricted the development of the theory in the field.This paper takes 6 main urban area of Hangzhou as research object, using the monthly data of 237 residential land and 660 residential district, apply GIS to establish the spatial database of Hangzhou real estate, and construct the hedonic price model of housing and land, to quantitatively analys the derection and degree of the micro interaction between housing price and land price in Hangzhou from the project level. Through this study, the following conclusions are obtained:(1) Land transfer price signal can be quickly passed to the surrounding area, and has a significant impact on the surrounding housing.After the event of land transfer, the price signal can be quickly passed to the surrounding residential area, and has a significant positive impact on the price of the surrounding residential district from the beginning of the month, then, the impact of this trend is weakening until disappear. This reflects the quick response to information of Hangzhou’s real estate market. When the land price signal occurs, the real estate market can quickly and effectively absorb new information, and thus make timely price adjustment.(2) The effect of land price signal on the surrounding housing price has a diffusion effect in space.Like a ripple spreading out, the impact of land transfer signal to the surrounding area gradually decreases with the increase of distance. But, the positive imapct coefficient of the residential district, which is directly adjacent to the land block, is weakened by a certain degree.(3) Land transaction price is affected by the surrounding housing prices, and the housing price 3 months before has the greatest impact.Before the land transaction, developers will expect the future profit of the project, which will tbe affected by surrounding residential price, thus directly affect its participation in land auction. Three months befor the transfer of land, the factor of housing price is the biggest.(4) Urban housing prices and land prices affect each other, and the impact of housing prices on land price is higher.Urban housing price and land price is a kind of mutual influence, but not a one-way relationship. The impact of residential price on land price is much greater. After the land transfer, the maximum impact coefficient of the residential price is 0.226, which means the floor price increase 1%, the price of the surrounding residential increase 0.226%.12 months before the transfer of land, the coefficient of housing price in the rang on 3km is between 0.420 to 0.784, which means the surrounding residential average price increase 1%, the floor price will increase 0.420% to 0.784%.