Research Of Ecological Security Changes And Development Trend In Duolun County Of Inner Mongolia

DuoLun County of Inner Mongolia belongs to arid and semi-arid regions, nearly half a century, because of the influence of the nature factor and the artificial factor. Eco-environmental change affects the quality of life to people, at the same time, DuoLun County is located in controlling area of wind and sand source, so evaluating ecological security is very important to the environment of DuoLun County.In this paper, according to the characteristics of eco-environment and the actual situation of DuoLun County, selected seven years from1960to2010as the evaluation sample, built the ecological security evaluation index system of DuoLun County according to the P-S-R model, then selected indicators by the principal component analysis. Based on AHP method, the weight of each index layer was determined, finally calculated the ecological security index value, and then ecological security of DuoLun County was evaluated and analyzed.By using the method of stepwise regression analysis to establish the forecast model of the changes on the Inner Mongolia DuoLun County ecological security.Studies showed that during the50years from1960to2010, DuoLun County’s ecological security level implementation by general safety to the safety, ecological security situation has improved. The ecological security of DuoLun County from1960to1987is level Ⅲ, which is generally safe state, from1995to2010is level Ⅱ,which is relatively safe state. Finally used the method of stepwise regression analysis to establish the ecological security forecast model of DuoLun County, compared the calculated results by forecasting model with the comprehensive index method, the results error only existed in the micrometer level, both are highly fitting, at the same time,it showed that to use the stepwise regression analysis method to establish DuoLun County’s ecological security prediction model is scientific and feasible, and also demonstrated that to use comprehensive index method to calculate the ecological security index value is reliable.