Research On The Prediction Model Of Hulunbeir Grassland Degradation

Hulunbeir grassland is one of the well-preserved natural grassland in the world, and also fairly large grassland with the best vegetation in China. Hulunbeir grassland and Daxinganlin forest constitute not only the essential ecological barrier in the northern part of China but also the production base and the ecological barrier of inland. Hulunbeir grassland ecology has direct impact on China’s eco-climate even Eurasian ecology. With global warming, drought exacerbation lead to a sharp deterioration in Hulunbeir grassland ecological conditions, human activities have growing impact on ecological balance. Enhancing the protection and construction of Hulunbeir grassland, forests and other complex ecosystems has an extremely important strategic significance to the maintenance of the ecological security of the country especially in northern China.In the essay, firstly, according to the natural environment and climate as well as the administrative division, it can be divided into four research areas:Ewenki Autonomous Banner Grassland (hereinafter referred to as Ewenki grassland), Chenbarh Banner grassland (hereinafter referred to as Chenbarh grassland), Xinbarhzuo Banner grassland (hereinafter referred to as Xinzuo Banner grassland), Xinbarhyou Banner grassland (hereinafter referred to as Xinyou Banner grassland). The analysis is on the impact of natural factors and human factors on grassland degradation based on the main meteorological data, the data of reflecting human factors and the data of grassland degradation from1970to2005. The results show that the temperature, one of the natural factors has positive correlation with grassland degradation. The average annual ground temperature has a close correlation with the four research areas, and the correlation coefficient is0.859with Xinyou Banner grassland. While the total annual livestock number, one of the human factors, has a close relationship with the four research areas, and the maximum correlation coefficient is0.560with Xinyou Banner grassland. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation index of the main factors affecting Hulunbeir grassland degradation is drawn through the multivariate statistical analysis on23indicators of natural and human factors from1985to2010. According to the contribution rate of comprehensive index factor, the main factor affecting the Hulunbeir grassland degradation is the one reflecting human activities. Its contribution rate is64.16%that is much larger than others.The prediction models of Hulunbeir grassland precipitation is established through the principal component analyzing method and multiple regression theory and the model has been tested. This model can predict next month’s rainfall according to the present month’s meteorological data so the relevant local departments can make decision based on the degree of the precipitation. At last, Hulunbeir grassland future degradation extent is predicted via Markov model, which shows that if curent condition of Hulunbeir grassland remains to2020and2030, Hulunbeir grassland degradation rate continues rising and nondegradated grassland area will reach29.94%, light and moderate degradation rate also has a slight rise while sever degradation tends to be slightly weakend.