A Comparative Study Of Cropland Prediction In Dechang County Based On CA-Markov And CLUE-S Models

Cultivated land is an important material basis for human survival and development.Cultivated land resources is rich in our country,but per capita cultivated land resources are seriously insufficient,cultivated land reserve resources are in short supply.At present,with the continuous progress of urbanization,the phenomenon of construction land occupying cultivated land resources are more and more serious.In order to guarantee the quantity of cultivated land and ensure the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land in China,the state has put forward the policy of "balance of cultivated land occupation and subsidy".Although the implementation of the policy of balance of farmland occupation and subsidy ensures the quantity of cultivated land to some extent,the phenomenon of "dominance and subsidization" in many areas leads to the serious decline of national cultivated land quality.Therefore,it is more important to grasp the spatial-temporal variation law of cultivated land resources in,to predict the evolution trend of cultivated land resources,and to propose reasonable protection measures for the rational planning of cultivated land resources in the research area.Firstly,this article introduces the background and significance of the research on the change of cultivated land and the forecast of cultivated land.Then,taking the national rural revitalization strategy as the background,taking Dechang county of Sichuan province as an example,Arcgis10.1 software was used to analyze the change characteristics of cultivated land resources and internal spatial structure in the study area by combining the land use status map and the collected socioeconomic data of Dechang county in Sichuan province from 2005 to 2015.Then,through the CA-Markov model and CLUE-S model,the change trend of cultivated land in the research area was predicted.Finally,the theoretical basis,ideas and results of the two kinds of different prediction models were compared and analyzed by using the comparative analysis method.To understand the applicability and limitations of different spatial models in the prediction of cultivated land,so as to provide better theoretical guidance for the sustainable development of cultivated land in the research area,optimize the allocation of land resources in the research area,and provide certain advice for the overall planning of land use and land use decision-making in the future.