Study On Habitat Suitability Of Grape Phylloxera (Daktulosphaira Vitifolia Fitch) In China

Grape is an important economic crop in our country, and has widely planted area. ButDaktulosphaira vitifolia Fitch is a devastating pest for grape, only hazards species of grape,and is a quarantine pest, serious impact the grape industry in China. In this research, we usedecological niche models (including MaxEnt、 GARP、 BIOCLIM and DOMAIN) andgeographic information system with environment variables to predict the potential distributionareas in China, and assessed the accuracy of different models by Receiver OperatingCharacteristic (ROC) curve. The study quantitatively predicted the potential distribution ofphylloxera in China which provided a theoretical basis for spreading and monitoring.The main contents and results are listed as follows:1) Using different ecological niche models (MaxEnt、GARP、BIOCLIM and DOMAIN),combined biological characteristics of grape phylloxera analyzed the potential distributionareas of grape phylloxera in China, and the results indicated that the suitability regions of fourmodels were not significant different，but it had more larger regions predicted by MaxEnt,GARP and BIOCLIM models than DOMAIN model.2) Using geographic information system to dispose and analysis the predicting results offour models, and obtained suitable degrees. The results indicated that the high suitabilitydistribution areas of grape phylloxera were Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Hebei, Jilin,Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Yunnan,Chongqing provinces. Xinjiang, Xizang, Qinghai, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia,Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian provinces also had sporadic distribution regions. In general,phylloxera had strong suitability in China.3) We used the method of ROC curve to assess the accuracy of the different models（MaxEnt、GARP、BIOCLIM and DOMAIN）, and the results showed that the area under curve (AUC) values of MaxEnt model was0.982, the AUC values of GARP model was0.990,the AUC values of BIOCLIM was0.975, the AUC values of DOMAIN model was0.877. TheAUC values were approximate to one, indicating the prediction results were fairly satisfactory,but the value of DOMAIN model was smallest. We think it had some mistake.4) The environment variables analyzed by MaxEnt model showed that these variableshad a more important impact on grape phylloxera distribution which were max temperature ofwarmest month, min temperature of coldest month, precipitation of wettest month,precipitation of wettest quarter.5) The comparison of operation process and evaluation process for four models showedthat MaxEnt and GARP models were more simple and convenient than BIOCLIM andDOMAIN models.