The Prediction System Of Wheat Head Blight In Guanzhong Region

Wheat head blight in Guanzhong has been increasing since 1970 s, with the improvement of watering and fertilization and the modification of cultivation patterns. Considerable researches were investigated on the epidemic factors, pathogen spatial distribution and sexual development, epidemic dynamics, chemical control decision-making of wheat head blight. However, studies on the density of perithecium and airborne ascospores still remain blink in Guanzhong, due to the limited conditions. The dynamic simulation model was established using ascospore density 10 cm above the ground as pathogen quantity. This not only reduced the accuracy but increased the workload. Moreover it limited the predicting in anthesis period, which made it impossible to give warning early to control wheat head blight. To solve this problem, we researched the relationship between the density of perithecium-generating corn stem and ascospores per ear based on the latest research result all over the worlds. We established a prediction model and developed the remote warning systems of wheat head blight in Guanzhong. The main results are as follows :1. The relationship between and ascospores per ear, y1 = 1.115 + 2.506 x,R2 = 0.972, by field simulation test.2. A new wheat head blight prediction model was established based on the relationship between the density of perithecium-generating corn stem and ascospores per ear, combined with wheat head blight epidemic dynamic simulation model. Its accuracy for 15 representative counties in Guanzhong in 2014 equals to 92 %, while that for Yangling in 1986~1992 equals to 75 %.3. A wheat head blight prediction instrument was developed, using single-chip microcomputer, rain gauge, temperature humidity sensors etc., to automatically collect meteorologic data, such as rainfall, temperature and relative humidity of wheat ear, and combined these with the density of perithecium-generating corn stem, wheat cultivar type and heading date to predict wheat head blight incidence. Use GPRS technology for storage and remote transmission all of the information above.4. A wheat head blight remote early warning system was developed using ASP.NET technology, Visual Studio.NET 2010, NET Framework 4.0 and SQL database technology.