Study On The Risk Zoning Of Sugarcane Production Risk In The Major Producing Areas In China

Sugarcane is the main raw material of sugar in our country. Since reform and opening up, the planting area, production and the yield per unit of our country’s sugarcane showed a trend of rising year by year. Since our country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, Sugar imports increase instead of reducing year by year. Guangdong Province, Guangxi Province, Yunnan province and Hainan province is the four main sugarcane producing areas in China. But there are differences between different areas and risk faced by the production of sugarcane. The paper chooses 68 municipal (county, state) of the four main sugarcane producing areas as the division unit. Division of sugarcane production risk is the basic and premise of integrating sugarcane insurance premium according to the result of division and carrying out sugarcane insurance, is the measures to protect the sugarcane farmers income and improve sugarcane production enthusiasm, is also the practice of sugarcane division theory. In addition, we can also reasonable layout sugarcane production to reduce the risk of loss according to the level of the division of risk.Firstly, this paper uses the literature research method to carry on the literature review on the existing literature and determine research content and research objectives. It defines production risk and risk zoning concept and discourse agricultural meteorology theory, agricultural disaster science theory, agricultural division theory. It reveals the main risk faced by sugarcane production in our country based on the sugarcane production status since the reform and opening up, and analyze our country’s sugarcane risk status. Follow the dominant index method, we select 10 indexes as risk zoning indexes, and use these indicators to empirical analysis sugarcane production risk. By applying the method of hierarchy clustering of cluster analysis method to classify and analysis each province each areas’ level of risk. The result is:the north and middle of Guangdong province is low risk, the remaining risk areas scattered around; the middle to south of Guangxi province is lower risk, other risks areas dispersed on the boundary line in Guangxi province; the middle to south of Yunnan province is higher risk, the north is middle risk, the west is lower risk; the middle is low risk; the middle to north of Hainan province is higher risk, the southwest is lower risk, the north and northeast is low risk. Finally it concludes the research findings, then from scientific planning layout sugarcane production and partition sugarcane insurance to put forward sugarcane risk management measures according to the results of the risk division.The conclusions of this paper are:(1) The planting area, production and the yield per unit of our country’s sugarcane showed a trend of rising year by year, but sugarcane disaster losses are also difficult to decline.(2) Most zoning indexes’ risk level is very close with classification result, the yield per unit’s coefficient of variation’s risk assessment results is very good, the average specialization index of the nearly five years, the average efficiency index of the nearly five years deviated from the results, temperature indexes are not significant.(3) The result is divided into 5 types of risk area. Guangdong Province sugarcane’s risk level is low and has the characteristics of centralized; Guangxi Province sugarcane’s risk level is lower and has the characteristics of centralized; Yunnan Province sugarcane’s risk level is middle and has the characteristics of dispersion; Hainan Province sugarcane’s risk level is higher and has the characteristics of dispersion.