Risk Assessment And Zoning Of Crop Planting In Heilongjiang Province

Crop planting risk assessment is a practical problem that is needed to stabilize agricultural development,and it is also a scientific problem that agricultural risk assessment disciplines urgently need to solve.The crop growth process has many factors,and the degree of crop growth in different regions and different growing periods is different,so the risk assessment process of crop cultivation is relatively complicated.At present,the risk assessment and risk area are divided into two independent processes,mainly from the risk factors,risk loss and risk mechanism of three different angles to assess the risk of crop cultivation;get the risk assessment results,according to the risk assessment results,The risk zoning is selected by using the extreme value model and the mean model to select the risk zoning index,and the qualitative risk rating result is given.In this paper,according to the needs of practical applications,the main research on crop crops in different regions due to natural disasters,the risk of reduced crop yields.Prior to carrying out the risk assessment work,the risk areas are divided into different regions with different disaster prevention and mitigation capacities,and the risk of crop cultivation is evaluated in similar areas,and the quantitative results of the risk assessment in different regions are obtained.Crop crop risk is the result of the risk of disaster-causing factors and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body.Therefore,the risk assessment of crop cultivation will address the extent to which the natural disaster will cause the loss of crop production and what kind of probability distribution of natural disasters Two questions.In this paper,we use the comprehensive index method to divide the areas with similar disaster prevention and mitigation capacity into one risk unit and complete the risk zoning.We use the generalized linear model to solve the problem of how the natural disaster will cause the crop yield(The number of continuous rainfall days,continuous low temperature days and other indicators that)and the volatility of the linear relationship between the output to complete the vulnerability assessment;the use of weather,the use of weather,Generator model to simulate the occurrence of disaster risk factors in various regions to solve the problem of natural disaster probability distribution,to complete the hazard risk assessment.In terms of the application,this paper discusses the application of the model from the angle of agricultural insurance rate,and uses the risk zoning model to divide the Heilongjiang Nongjiang Sanjiang Administration into two risk units,and the risk of crop cultivation for each risk unit The pure risk rate of rice planting insurance in the two risk units is close to that of the current rice planting insurance in Heilongjiang Province,which shows the rationality and the importance of the risk assessment model constructed in this paper.