Research On Land Use/Land Cover Change Based On Remote Sensing And Geographic Information System In National Nature Reserve Of Shengjin Lake In Anhui Province

This paper selected land use/land cover change as the research object in National Nature Reserve of Shengjin Lake in Anhui Province, which will take 1986,2004 and 1986 TM remote sensing images as data source, it will unify Anhui 1:50,000 administrative maps, topographic maps of 1:10000 in Shengjin Lake area, soil type distribution maps, SPOT5 remote sensing images, as the support of the RS technology, which using Erdas9.2 to band combinations, geometric correction, image enhancement, cutting and other pretreatment, which choice of supervised classification method for extraction of land use types information in the study area. It formed three periods’ classified thematic maps of land use types, which using Fragstats software to analyze the land use landscape of protected areas, calculate the landscape indices of land use types, and analyze the land use landscape pattern dynamic changes during different periods. Finally, integration with system dynamics model, which had been simulate and forecasted the land use landscape, which will providing theoretical basis for scientific and reasonable use of protected areas land.(1)This paper had used three phase of the remote sensing images land use classification result in Shengjin Lake, it showed that matrix of the protected area was farmland, farmland accounts for 45%, followed by the waters, accounts for 25%, followed by again was the forest land, construction land, unused land and grassland. Therefore, the protection of the ecological system was mainly controlled by three of land use landscape types, which were the farmland, water and woodland landscape. In the land use landscape type, the proportion of farming was bigger, presents the trend of slow growth, the land for construction growth was fastest. During the 25 years from 1986 to 2011 years, were planted crops from about 40% increases to 45%, indicating that the protected area of the land affected by human interferences. Taking into account the needs of sustainable development and environmental protection, should reduce the influence of human factor from now on.(2) This paper had been analyzed three stage classification of thematic map of protected areas of landscape types and the landscape pattern, which found that the protected areas ecological diversity tends to reduce. If wanted to maintain protected areas ecological diversity, protected areas should increase the woodland, grassland and the lake area, reduce man-made interference.(3)This paper used system dynamics modeling software simulation of protected areas 2004 and 2011 years of land use landscape, and predicted the next 20 years of land use landscape types. Comparing simulation results with the actual data in 2004 and 2011, the results showed that, the results of 2011 simulations and are quite actually close, the maximum error of less than 6%, indicating that the simulation prediction data was more reliable. Using the Fragstats software to analysis the type of land use in 2004 year, and compared with the simulated data, this found that the protected areas occurred floods during that year. The worst-affected was unused land; followed by is construction land, grassland and forestland. Among them, the 2004 land-use types comprehensive, water area increase 30%. From the system dynamics model forecast data showed that the ecological environment of the nature reserve by human interference, it was recommended to control the development of construction land, and appropriately increased the area of forestland, grassland and water. On the basis of keeping the land use and ecosystem stability, take appropriate measures to promote the sustainable development of land, economic and social.(4)This paper was combined with remote sensing, land use, landscape indices and system dynamics model, simulation and prediction the land use/cover change in National Nature Reserve of Shengjin Lake in Anhui Province, it was an important theoretical basis for wetland land use/cover change research, and it was a great significance for land use and sustainable development.