The Study Of China Crops Spatial-temporal Pattern Changes And Driving Factors

Hubei and Hunan are the main agricultural provinces in China. This paper studies its main crops’ spatial pattern changes from the county scale and the influencing mechanism of local region’s social economy driving factor on the basis of GWR, which not only can deeply understand the driving factors of spatial-temporal pattern changes, but also provide theoretical support and scientific basis for ensuring regional food security.In Hunan and Hubei, the main crops include rice(early season rice, single-season rice and late rice), oil plants, vegetables, etc. Firstly, this article, from each crop’s seeded area, analyzes the change features of spatial and temporal pattern. Secondly, selecting single season rice acreage in Hubei and Hunan double cropping rice’s seeded area as the dependent variables, with the main social and economic factors, by GWR to analyze every dominant factor that impacts main food crop planting area change mechanism of space and time in Hubei and Hunan. Research results are as follows:(1) There were obvious pattern in spatial and temporal changes of the crops in Hubei and Hunan. For early and late rice, seeded area was decreasing continuously in Hunan and Hubei among 1996-2003, especially Ezhong area in Hubei and Xiangbei area in Hunan. From 2003 to 2010, early and late rice’s seeded area were gradually recovered to growth, Hunan was fully recovered. High concentrated areas of early and late rice were moving east gradually in Hubei, but basically remained stable in Hunan. For single season rice, seeded acreage had a sharp growth in Hubei’s Ezhong and Ebei region and high concentrated areas expanded significantly. Hunan’s Xiangbei area changed significantly, the high concentrated areas significantly narrowed. For oil crops, it changed significantly in Hubei and remained stable in Hunan from 1996 to 2007, after 2007, it increased rapidly in Xiangbei region. For vegetables, it raised obviously in Hubei from 1996 to 2003 and decreased gradually from 2003 to 2010, while Hunan shown whole growth tendency, and high concentrated areas all gathered around the city circle of both provinces. 2004 and 2007 were the timing that government issued related agricultural subsidy policy for rice and oil plants. From the turning point of crops pattern in spatial and temporal change, national agricultural policy on crops had obvious guiding function.(2)Geographically weighted regression analysis results show that: the spatial regression coefficient values of the agricultural labor force factor, machine-cultivated area factor, cultivated land area factor, the level of urbanization, agricultural economic structure, industrial economic structure in every county of Hubei and Hunan are relatively higher. And these factors have different effect on the seeded area of Hubei single season rice and Hunan double cropping rice both in time and space. But the capita income factor has less influence on the seeded area of Hubei single season rice and Hunan double cropping rice and spatial difference is not significant. Therefore, the agricultural labor force, machine-cultivated area, cultivated land source, the level of urbanization, agricultural economic structure, industrial economic structure are the main driving factors affecting the spatial-temporal pattern changes of sown area of Hubei single season rice and Hunan double cropping rice.