Research On The Strategy Of Variety Arrangement Of Rice Production Adaptation To Climate Change In Shenyang

In the actual production of rice, with the improvement of the level of agricultural technology, rice productivity level maintains a stable growth. But with global warming, increasing of the climate volatility in time and space, would be caused great impact on rice production.So in the actual production of rice in Shenyang area, an urgent for adaptive strategies to cope with climate change are needed. This study is based on the principle of agricultural climate similarity, use Tieling, Shenyang and Panjin rice yield data as the current climate scenarios in Shenyang in mid, mid-late early type and late mature rice varieties representative, using consecutive cold day as a reference to reflect the characteristics of climate change and rice chilling injury index and active accumulated temperature index, analyze the inter annual variation of heat index and evaluate their impacts on the yield of rice varieties with different mature periods were. Under the 85% guarantee rate, constitute the strategies of variety arrangement adapting to climate change of rice production in Shenyang area. The main results are as follows:1. In recent 57a, active accumulated temperature showed the significant increasing trend (P<0.05)in Tieling, Shenyang and Panjin, per 10a increased 52.6℃,50.8℃,63.2℃, and there are significant 2.6a,3.6a,3.6a cycle oscillation (P<0.01).Consecutive cold day index showed the significant increasing trend (P<0.01),per 10a increased 12.4d,4.9d,11.1d, and there are 5a and 10a cycle oscillation (P<0.10).However, due to the aggravation of climate volatility, since 2000,decreasing active accumulated temperature in three areas and increasing CCDI. Growing season length showed the significant increasing trend (P<0.05), per 10a increased 2.2d,1.9d,2.4d. The similarity distance of agricultural climate were 0.125 and 0.129 between Shenyang and Tieling, Shenyang and Panjin, regional agricultural climate similarity is very high, so it can be directly introduction.2. During 1992 to 2011, the trend yield of mid, mid-late early type and late mature rice varieties showed the significant increasing trend (P<0.01),per 10a increased 343.3 kg/hm2, 379.4 kg/hm2,264.8 kg/hm2, different mature rice varieties all showed the 5a cycle oscillation (P<0.10). After introduction, the yield of mid-mature rice variety is the highest in low temperature years in Shenyang, mid-late early type and mid-late mature rice varieties in normal temperature years, the meteorological yield of different mature rice varieties is the highest in medium CCDI years. Probability of low-level CCDI show a rising trend in the coming period and increase from 40% in 2016 to 60% in 2050. Under the 85% guarantee rate, based on active accumulated temperature and CCDI, the area of rice planting is giving a priority to mid-late mature rice varieties in Shenyang from 2016 to 2050. In order to make a best use of heat resources and ensure the stability of production, the introduction of mid-late mature rice varieties planted area with 48.9%～61.1% more appropriate.