Construction Of Decision Support System For Arrangement Strategy For Rice Variety With Different Maturity In Liaoning Province

The occurrence of extreme climate disasters affected the production of rice seriously.Even the average climate condition has improved in the background of global warming,the frequent occurrence of extreme meteorological disasters seriously threatens the production and safety of rice.In the feasibility study of rice introduction in the northeast of China,we tend to put average temperature state as the main consideration,but ignore the influence on agricultural production caused by the frequent occurrence of extreme meteorological disaster events,which makes partial late maturing rice varieties in Northeast more likely to suffer chilling injury.At the same time,in the study of adaptive strategies of rice production in response to global climate change,the following relationship between heat condition and rice yield exist:Partial late maturing rice varieties generally has a high production when heat condition better,but can not resistant to low temperature;Partial early maturing rice varieties generally can resistant to low temperature,but usually with a low yield in poor heat condition.Although the chilling damage is reduced by the improvement of the temperature in background of global warming,the risk of chilling injury is greatly increased because of the excessive introduction of late maturing rice varieties.Therefore,in order to avoid the risk of chilling injury in rice,it is very significant to research the adaptation measures of arrangement strategies for rice varieties with different maturity,which can provide the guarantee for the safe production of rice.The study take the historical rice yield data of 8 regions in Liaoning Province(the regions of Shenyang,Panjin,Anshan,Liaoyang,Jinzhou,Dandong,Chaoyang,Fuxin)as the analysis data of representative varieties in current climatic conditions of planting partial early maturing,middle maturing and partial late maturing rice by using space-time replacement technology based on the agroclimatic analogy principle,and constructed the decision support system for rice varieties with different maturation period in Liaoning province by using Visual Basic system development platform and Access database system,adaptive strategy analysis and evaluation of 10a in the future climate change background under the condition of rice varieties with different maturity in Liaoning collocation.The results are as follows:1.In this paper,by applying 62 years historical data of rice yield at 17 sites in 9 regions of Liaoning Province,the rationality of separating rice trend and meterological yields was compared and discussed among three fitting methods of trend yield—HP filter,exponential smoothing and Logistic methods.The results showed that the HP filtering method is the best way to fit rice trend yield of Liaoning Province among the three fitting method,then is the exponential smoothing method,while the Logistic method is not suitable for fitting rice trend yield of Liaoning Province.The research results can provide reference for trend yield fitting.2.We selected two reference regions for the selected prediction area based on the principle of climatic similarity and analysed the trend of more than 10 ? accumulated temperature and annual average temperature.in prediction regions of Liaoning province.The results are as follows:1)The climate tendency rate of annual average temperature is 0.312?/10a in Liaoning province from 1961 to 2010,and the annual average temperature of each prediction region is between 7.08 ? and 9.71 ? in Liaoning province from 1961 to 2010.Agricultural climatic similarity distance are about 0.35 in regions of Liaoning Province and with high climate similarity.The prediction regions and its reference are suitable for introduction,which provides the basic theoretical basis and support for the research of space-time replacement technology.2)More than 10 ? active accumulated temperature in every 10 years wil lincrease 62.91 ? for the rice active accumulated temperature condition in Liaoning province.Although temperature condition have been improved in the background of global warming,more than 10 ? active accumulated temperature decreased significantly in regions of Liaoning Province(the regions of Shenyang,Jinzhou,Fuxin are in 0.05 significant level)due to climate fluctuations after the year of 2000.3.The study take the regions of Anshan,Dandong,Jinzhou in Liaoning Province as example,the following results are found in the realization of decision support system of arrangement strategies for rice varieties with different maturity:The optimum planting area percentage of partial early,medium and late maturing rice varieties in Anshan region(in the case of 85%guarantee rate)are 74%,6%,20%,respectively in 10 years of future,while 83%,12%,5%respectively in Dandong region and 15%,62%,23%respectively in Jinzhou region.Meanwhile,the expected yield with different maturity rice varieties arrangement strategies in Anshan,Dandong and Jinzhou(in the case of 85%guarantee rate)is 9178?9827 kg/hm2,7101?7282 kg/hm2,8621?9289 kg/hm2,respectively.4.According to the rice yield reduction problems caused by chilling injury under climate change conditions of future,the study constructed the decision support system of arrangement strategies for rice varieties with different maturity in Liaoning province by using Visual Basic visualization system development platform and database construction of Access.The system consists of decision making and prediction functions,which can meet the basic needs of the user to develop adaptive strategies for rice planting under different climatic conditions in the future.