Study On Maxent And ArcGIS To Analyze Potential Suitable Distribution Area Of Pinus Sylvestris Var. Mongolica And Its Climatic Suitability

This paper study on the relationship between the natural distribution of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest in our country and the current climate situation. The natural distribution of the Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest is based on "1:1000000 Vegetation Map of China" provide by National Science & Technology Infrastructure Center-Data Sharing Infrastructure of Earth System Science<www.geodata.cn> and relevant research literature of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica in our country. And it is passing a climate data fitting out of 10 potential climate factors, applying the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS software, constructs a model that relation with potential distribution of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest and climate date. The suitability for Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest cultivation in Northeast China is given by the model. The decadal dynamics of the climatic factors during 1981-2010 in the areas of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest cultivation is analyzed, and the 10 factors which influence of the potential distribution of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest cultivation in China is discussed, and sums up the characteristics of suitable areas of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest. The main conclusions are listed as follows.(1) The MaxEnt model is suitable for probing the relationship between Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest cultivation distribution in Northeast China and climate. Using the 10 climate potential factors which affected Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest distribution to maximum entropy model. The value of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) achieves at 0.921, which indicates predictive accuracy of model achieved the "Excellent1.(2) The prediction results show that the MaxEnt model is able to point out the climatic key factors affecting distribution of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest including the average evaporation in January (32.29%), days of yearly snow (21.08%), mean annual extreme maximum temperature (13.31%), hours of yearly sunshine (13.25%), days of yearly strong wind (6.19%), the average temperature in January(6.06%), precipitation in January (5.67%), and their accumulated percent contribution is over to 97%.(3) The suitability class of distribution of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest is given by the existence probability (p) obtained the relationship between Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest cultivation distribution and climate factors:p<0.05 (unsuitable area),0.05≤-p<0.33 (less suitable area),0.33≤p<0.66 (appropriate area), and p≥0.66 (optimum area).(4) The potential cultivation distribution of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest is showing an increasing tendency in Northeast China during 1981-2010. The optimum and appropriate area and less suitable area of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest cultivation is showing an increasing tendency, its appropriate area was arrived about 1.2×106km2 in the last 10 years, that was achieved 87.83% of the total area of the study area. The expansion of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica forest cultivation in Northeast China is possible under climatic change.