Suitable Regions Prediction And Risk Analysis Of Pinus Sylvestris Var.mongolica Litv Canker Disease

Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii,also known as Pitch Canker Disease,is a newly discovered important invasive disease.The objective of the research is to reduce the risk of invasion,control the development of epidemic situation and prevent the spread of disease,and provide scientific basis for the detection and early warning of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii and the formulation of effective prevention and control strategies.The core of the research is prediction and Risk Analysis of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii.In the paper,we studied four aspects of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii in China,the impact of climate change on the suitable regions,the pest risk analysis and the rapid detection method of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii.The results are as follows:(1)The results showed that the principal geographical distribution areas of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii were Heilongjiang,Jilin,northeastern Inner Mongolia,Sichuan and Yunnan.The analysis of Jackknife showed that factors such as the warmest quarter precipitation,the range of annual mean temperature change and the coldest quarter mean temperature have important influences on the geographical distribution areas of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii.The MaxEnt model has proved high reliability to determine the geographic distribution range of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii.(2)Under different scenarios of climate change,the suitable distribution regions of each grade of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii in northeastern Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Sichuan and Yunnan increased,and the disease has a trend of concentrated outbreak.the principal geographical distribution regions of the north of China,including the central part of Inner Mongolia,Hebei,Shanxi and Shaanxi are fragmented.The moderately and highly suitable regions in Gansu,Shaanxi,Sichuan and Tibet increased,and the suitable grades increased.(3)According to the results of pest risk analysis,Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii is a highly dangerous forest disease in China(R=2.38).(4)The LAMP specific primers were designed and a fast and accurate LAMP detection method based on color determination was established.The specificity of LAMP detection method was verified by experiments,and the lowest detection sensitivity was found to be 100 pg/?L.The LAMP specific primers developed can be used for rapid detection of Rhizosphaera kalkhoffii.