Study On Death Level Of Population In Xinjiang

Purpose:In accordance with the data of Sixth Census conducted by Statistics Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the author makes a study on the death level of population in Xinjiang. Method:By means of simple life table and standard scale, the author makes specific scale in accordance with sexes and ages, evaluating the errors existing in statistics of population death and making modifications; based on the data achieved in four censuses, the author amends the data by the Smoothing of SPSS, adjusting and modifying abnormal values, so as to maintain the smoothness as well as necessary continuity of mortality curve; by means of Gompertz Model, the author makes an analysis on people aging90or over in four censuses, making the data be available to comparison; then the author makes a research and prediction on the death level of our district by using Lee-Carter Model; by means of SPSS, the author makes a cluster analysis in accordance with the changes of average future life as well as infant mortality rate, describing and analyzing the death level of population in various areas of Xinjiang, analyzing the differences and reasons for deaths of different groups (towns and countries, nationalities, education degree, marriage status). Result:There are missing reports and repeated reports existing in six censuses, and Xinjiang is the only one area filled with errors. After the adjustment, the death level of Xinjiang population is slightly higher than national average level, while the differences between Xinjiang’s death level and nation’s death level has been gradually reducing; the predicted results for Xinjiang’s future death rate achieved in accordance with Lee-Cater are good; the features of death rate are as follows:the death level of southern Xinjiang is higher than that of northern Xinjiang, the death level of minority nationalities is higher than that of Han nationality, the death level of male is higher than that of female, higher education degree leads to lower death rate, the death level of unmarried and divorce is higher than that of married. Conclusion:Making life table cannot simply rely on the census data, only combining with the missing report rate, can the life table be more accurately reflected the death level.Moreover, social economy, natural geographical environment and climate are major factors influencing the differences of death.