Land Use Change And Its Simulation By The Decision-making Behavior Of Peasant Household In Pingbian,Yunnan Province

Land use change reflects the process of human activity, it is the current research focus. The research area is focused on the relationship between people and land, fragile ecological environment and other areas. This study takes Pingbian Miao Autonomous County of Yunnan Province as the research area. With the help of RS and GIS technology, analyze the basic characteristics of land use change in the study area (2002-2015), summarize land use change rule respectively from angles of the villages, elevation and slope, explain land use change process and its influencing factors qualitatively and quantitatively. Summarize the law of land use decision through the analysis of the questionnaire information. By dividing the type of farmers and limiting factors, through the decision-making model of land use behavior, simulate the change of land use in the next ten years. The research conclusions are as follows:From year 2002 to 2015, the change of the total amount of land types in Pingbian county is not so much. Land use change is mainly reflected in the change of spatial pattern. The total area of farmland in Pingbian county increased, the total area of woodland was essentially flat and a small amount of grassland is transferred into farmland and woodland. The transformation direction of land use type is mainly between the woodland and the farmland. Change direction differ in different regions ofPingbian county. Since the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to woodland. The main performance of the high altitude area (>1600m)is the conversion of farmland to woodland and the low altitude area (< 1600m) have water and heat conditions advantage. Land reclamation behavior leads to low altitude area mainly for the conversion of woodland to farmland.Farmers’ land use decisions influenced by internal factors and external factors.The internal factor is the difference of the farmer’s own attribute. The main influencing factors are the composition of farmers’ income and the per capita farmland area. External factors refer to the influence of environmental factors on farmers’ decision-making. The main influencing factors were altitude, traffic accessibility and slope gradient.The farmers’ decision-making of land use types is mainly influenced by two factors: waste or farm. By using the method of binary-tree, we can divide the farmers into five types, the decision threshold can reflect the combined effects of internal and external factors.Agent-based simulation model suggests the decision-making behavior of farmers: In the next 10 years, the whole county land use change as a whole showed a decrease of farmland and woodland. The spatial distribution of the south tropical woodland of Baihe township will be converted into farmland. The intensive degree of farmland will continue to rise.In summary, the spatial distribution pattern of land use type in Pingbian county changed greatly. It has obvious change rules, and also has large difference of topography in the study area. Under the combined effect of environmental factors and farmers’ decision-making, the woodland of high altitude area is increased, the farmland of low altitude area is increased. The farmers’ decision-making behavior is influenced by internal factors and external factors. The internal factors include the income of farmers and the per capita farmland area and the external factors include elevation, traffic accessibility, slope and so on. Based on historical characteristics of land use change and the farmers’ decision-making characteristics, we have designed a farmers’ land use-decision model. The results show that:in the next 10 years, the study area will be further developed as low elevation of the villages and towns of farmland, the county cultivated land, woodland reduced.