Research On Risk Quantitative Of “house-for-pension Scheme” Based On Financial Institutions Risk Prevention

With the intensification of China’s aging population, China’s old-age Pension system which mainly contains basic endowment insurance, annuity and personal savings pension in current faces enormous challenges. In order to solve this problem, China establish "initial House-For-Pension Scheme" pilots in Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou from July,2014 to June,2016,which marking the beginning of diversification of China’s pension system. "House-For-Pension Scheme" in foreign countries especially in United States has grown rather mature, but it is still at early exploration stage in China featuring that the development is extremely slow. One of the major reasons is people’s understanding towards the risk of "House-For-Pension Scheme". From the perspective of participants who are involved in the scheme, the risks faced by the senior and the financial institutions is distinct from each other.Firstly Standing in the perspective of financial institutions and starting from the angle of risk prevention of financial institutions, the thesis give a definition of "House-For-Pension Scheme". The paper then finds the risk resources through the research about operation mode of the sche me and analysis the features of the risk. According to its characteristics, we select fuzzy integrated evaluation model as risk quantitative model of the scheme; Secondly, according to the operation requirements and based on the samples on national data from 2004 to 2013, we establish a norm system of risk quantification of "House-For-Pension Scheme" on the basis of the analysis of correlation and discriminating ability and determine the weight of each risk index through entropy method. Then the thesis sets a collection of fuzzy evaluation and estimates the country’s "House-For-Pension Scheme" risk level to intermediate risk on the basic of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Finally selecting Beijing as empirically cases, the research estimates "House-For-Pension Scheme" of Beijing’s risk level to the intermediate risk, and the result is consistent with the status quo of Beijing as a pilot city. Thus, the paper proves the rationality and reliability of risk quantitative models of "House-For-Pension Scheme” and give financial institutions the recommendations to avoid the risk when conducting the Scheme for the case of Beijing.