Analysis And Study Of College Enrollment Data Based On Gray Forecast Model And AHP

Enrollment planning is an important part in the enrollment, scientific and reasonable preparation of college enrollment plan, is conducive to optimizing the allocation of higher education resources and promoting the education fairness. Moreover, the scientific and reasonable enrollment plan has become the key factor of the healthy, rapid and sustainable development of the university.The paper uses the normative analysis method to analyze the college admissions process, influence factors and the enrollment data, and selects the grey prediction mode GM (1,1), the two moving average model and the trend extrapolation to forecast the total enrollment plan. By using the comparative test method to predict the verification of historical enrollment data, it is concluded that the grey forecasting model of the enrollment data has the minimum prediction error. It introduces the method of estimated residuals to improve the grey prediction mode GM (1,1) by considering the volatility of the actual enrollment plan, which is in order to improve the accuracy and scientific prediction of the enrollment data. Based on the above results, this paper established the AHP model. Since the enrollment planning is influenced by the state macro-control, the development of local economy, the employment situation, the planning of university development, professional layout, the previous admission and so on. Some of these factors are certainty and some are uncertainty. The AHP model can deal with the qualitative and quantitative factors, and import the models of the experience judgment and policy decision, and then to quantifications. According to the modeling method of AHP, by constructing the hierarchical structure model and judgment matrix to determine the weight of each factor, and then get the provincial enrollment plan, professional enrollment plan and provincial professional enrollment plan.Through the verification, the enrollment plan made by the grey prediction mode GM (1,1) and AHP model is suitable to the actual situation, and has good practical value. It is a kind of effective method, which can be used for the enrollment plan and guide the work of colleges. For years, people only consider the qualitative approach in planning the collage enrollment plan. The changed method has overcome the traditional approach with many factors interference subjective, one-sided, strong subjective arbitrariness shortcomings, and makes out the more scientific and reasonable enrollment...