Analysis Of The Life Expectancy Based On Bayesian Random-effects Model

In recent years, with the advances of the economic development and improving medical technology, the average life expectancy of the population continues to increase, while the aging population is also more prominent. We must treat the aging trend not only as a sign of social progress and development but also should pay sufficient attention to the community about its influence to the development of social and government policy. In today’s presentation overall mortality decline, the average life expectancy of the population as a whole, while gradually improving, still can’not be ignored is that the presence of mortality and average life expectancy of the status of regional differences. Due to the different levels of economic development, health status and educational level, the level of mortality in all regions has a big difference.Thus, In order to accurately judge the situation of each province aging fields, we need to get more understanding of the improvement of the situation in various regions of mortality and average life expectancy variation.In order to reflect the regional differences between the life expectancy more intuitively,the study was mainly to describe death situation by considering the spatial correlation of mortality and proximity age interaction with Bayesian random-effects model.the 2010 death of the sixth national census data as samples information on mortality data smoothing, and then use the life table method of dividing the average life expectancy of provincial estimates, analyze the regional differences between the various provinces. The relevant departments can also put forward specific measures for different regions of the aging population.This paper quantifies the risk difference of the mortality between urban and rural areas that reflect from the sixth population census in China, and showed that the risk difference of the mortality between urban and rural areas increased comparing with the fifth population census;at the same time to verify the trend of the mortality with age;with the effect of spatial correlation of regional mortality,the life expectancy of different regions showed spatial aggregation,the population mortality showed significant regional differences;the life expectancy of the 31 province has showed significant differences between regions,genders and urban and rural areas.