The Long-term Forecasting Methods And Empirical Research Of Automotive Market Demand Base On The Diffusion Theory Of Innovative Products

The long-term forecasts of the market demand for the total vehicles，the new energyvehicles and combustion vehicle are significant evidences for the government makingeconomic development plans, auto industry doing structural adjustment, infrastructurebuilding programs, and the energy and environmental making policies. Based on theinnovation diffusion theory, we establish two forecast models to study the long-termdemand of the total automotive market and two kind of automotive products.Firstly, we review the research of the auto market demand forecasting methods athome and abroad, and analyze the characteristics and application of various methods,then lead out the bases of research methods----Innovation Diffusion Theory. Byanalyzing the long-term trend of car ownership, we choose the Richards model for thebase model of this study.Secondly, by using the historical data of the total needs of the automotive marketand the factors, we obtain that the GDP per capita and cost of vehicles, which is themain factor of the long-term needs of the automotive market. Then, we establish thetotal demand of the automotive market model---Richards extended forecast model,which uses GDP per capita and the cost of vehicles as the explanatory variable. We alsouse the historical data of USA and China to analysis the applicability of the model, andfind that the model can well reflect the actual situations. With different situation, weforecast the vehicle population from2011to2030. The result shows that with the rapiddevelopment of our economy, the number of the vehicle ownership willhave a high growth, and the possession of the automobile will be more than290millionin2030.Finally, In order to study the long-term market demand for two kinds ofautomotive products which compete with each other. This article draws on innovativeproducts competitive diffusion theory and the Richards model, combined withcharacteristics of competition in the market for automotive products, a long forecastingmodel to react the competition of two vehicles is established. We also use the historicaldata of the combustion vehicles and electric vehicles in the United States to analysis theapplicability of the model， and find that the model can well reflect the actual situation.This paper also theoretically analyzes effect of the cost advantage of electric vehiclescompared with internal combustion engine vehicles on the long-term market demand as well as the final state of the market. The result shows that the advantage of the relativecost is the main factor to decide whether the electric vehicles could replace combustionvehicles and capture the final market or not. Only if the ratio of electric vehicle’s carrycost is greater than the two vehicle’s maximum capacities, the electric vehicle willreplace the combustion vehicle and grab market share.